What is the so-called Principle Of Indifference? A semi-screwy, semi-right idea in probability. To cadge an example from David Stove, let T be any tautology (a truth), then      Pr(Bob…

Title of today's post is taken from article of the same name in Nature by William Sutherland, David Spiegelhalter, Mark Burgman. Several readers asked me to comment. I'll assume you've…

"Honey? Did you meet our new neighbors?" "Not yet. Why?" "I'm a little worried about them. They have an 'I heart NPR' sticker on their Prius." "Oh, God. Pass me…

Read Part I, Part II. Don't be lazy. This is difficult but extremely important stuff. Let's add in a layer of uncertainty and see what happens. But first hike up…