This is a bit of a preview of a paper my friend Russ Zaretzki are working on. Take a gander at his pic: This is the probability that John McCain wins the […]
Breaking the Law of Averages: Real-Life Probability and Statistics in Plain English
It is finally done! You may order directly from the publisher here1. The book will also be available on Amazon, Barnes and Noble, etc. in about a month. I’ll update this post […]
Michael Crichton and SETI
Michael Crichton, as you will have heard by now, is dead. Unfortunately. The Wall Street Journal today reprinted an excerpt of a speech Crichton gave called “Aliens Cause Global Warming.” Regular readers […]
New Arcsine Climate Forecast: Hot and Cold!
If you weren’t worried before, then take a look at this shocking new climate forecast! No, only kidding. This is the real forecast: Sorry. Can’t help myself. Here are four more “forecasts”. […]
Theory confirmation and disconfirmation
Time for an incomplete mini-lesson on theory confirmation and disconfirmation. Suppose you have a theory, or model, about how some thing works. That thing might be global warming, stock market prices, stimulating […]
We made Joker!
UPDATE: apologies to those who tried to comment from 1 am to 5 am EST Wednesday. My hosting service was doing maintenance and comments were locked out. All is well now. UPDATE […]
Wishcasting the McCain-Obama presidential election
Update: 2 March 2009. I am withdrawing this post, in the sense that I no longer think it is strictly accurate. See this post to see why. But I want to leave […]
I was wrong about wishcasting the election
I made a mistake when I wrote about wishcasting in the McCain-Obama presidential election. I’d like to thank Patrick Hadley for keeping up his criticisms which led to me to see more […]
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