I’ve started a new video series called What Are The Chances…? In which I’ll look at oddities, curiosities, coincidences, strange and even mundane events and see what we can tell about how likely or unlikely they are.
Unless the stories are exceptional, like today’s, I’m not inclined to make full posts of them, and will instead feature the weekly videos on YouTube, Rumble, the Substack Notes, and Twitter. So if you want to see them, you’ll have to subscribe or follow my on one of those platforms.
Unlike the Class (which I’m sure you’re all following and doing the self-directed homework for), What Are The Chances…? is more for fun. We’ll use the ideas of the Class and apply them to real life, but we’ll be far less rigorous about the math and the like.
The first installment is already up: What Are The Chances Of…Pearl Harbor Foretold? In 1938 it was reported the message “Remember Pearl Harbor!” was chalked on a sidewalk at a school in Owensville, Indiana. Was this prophetic? Or explainable given the politics of the day? WATCH HERE.
Episode two—the video is at the bottom of this post—comes from the NY Post Headline:
A picture of Jennifer James with a headscarf accompanies the article. She was 49 when she was killed by the “random” bullet.
We may as well tackle the “beat cancer four times” first. It’s pretty clear James was never entirely free from the disease, or was so prone to it that getting it the fourth (and final) time can’t have been any surprise. The scarf likely indicates the poor lady lost her hair through aggressive medicine. I mean, the “four times” is the least important part of this story.
Which means we first want the chance some lady with cancer is in a Colorado house at night, which doesn’t sound unlikely to me. There is no exact number here because there is no exact circumstance we can use as our “baseline”. Colorado reports an average rate of about 400 per 100,000, which is 4 out of a 1,000, or 1 out of 250. Pretty big number, really.
And even that isn’t interesting once we begin reading the details of the guy who took the shots. Shots. Plural. Two shots.
Shooter’s name is Ebenezer Worku, which though I searched and could not find, sounds like he’s not from around here. Here’s his mugshot.
Briefly, his car had been spotted in the area before the shooting. And, of course, after. Here are the top details from one report:
Investigators pinged his cell phone to the parking lot of Cabela’s in Thornton, where Worku and the Nissan were found, along with the Dodge and its driver [Worku claimed the Dodge belonged to his abdopted uncle]. The affidavit said the driver of the Dodge entered the store, returned with two boxes of live cartridges and handed them to Worku….
Worku waived his Miranda rights and was taken to the sheriff’s office to be interviewed.
Worku talked about his mental health history, according to the affidavit, and said he suffers from “homicidal schizophrenia,” and hears voices that tell him to harm others. He said he was off prescriptions for two years.
He admitted to possessing a Glock 22 handgun and said it was a birthday gift from his “adopted uncle,” identified as the driver of the Dodge. He said the gun was for target shooting and was only used at the range, and otherwise kept in a storage unit…
He initially denied being in Larimer County and the affidavit said he was confused why he was connected to an investigation…
Investigators told him that surveillance footage showed him in Berthoud on the night of the homicide and he denied knowing anything about a shooting…
Investigators pressed, and Worku said he discharged his firearm but did not know anyone was near…
Worku said he left the gas station and was driving south on 1st Street while he tried to clean his gun and “accidentally” fired it out of the driver’s window toward a house, according to the affidavit. He said he was unfamiliar with the gun and had his finger on the trigger when he pulled back the slide, making the gun discharge. He said he stopped in the middle of the road before the shot was fired.
Then, he said he fired again when he tried to clear the chamber, not realizing a live round was present. He told investigators he was not aiming and thought the bullets would hit a wall or stop short. He said he saw that the curtains of the home were mostly closed, so he did not think he hit anyone, got frightened and drove away, turning his headlights off to avoid drawing attention…
He said he thought the casings flew out of the car as he was holding the gun outside of the vehicle, however, the sheriff’s office said no casings were found at the scene.
He saud he didn’t know anybody was in the house he shot twice, claiming he didn’t know the gun was loaded after receiving two boxes of ammo to load the gun earlier. He first said he didn’t know anyone was near him. Then he said he didn’t think anybody was in the house, yet he studied it well enough to see the curtains were “mostly closed.” Mostly?
Then he said he didn’t know he shot the house, which is why he turned off his lights and drove off. And when he was arrested he said he had no idea why. He said he was cleaning the gun, but then he said he was holding it out the window.
Then he claimed he heard voices telling him to harm others.
More detail:
According to the affidavit, he said, “I did it, and I’m getting punished for it,” and repeatedly said “put me in jail,” even requesting the death sentence.
So what are the chances the bullets—not singular, plural—were “random”?
So low that I’d vote guilty.
Why did he pick this particular house? I don’t know. Probably seemed as good as any. But I’d guess he did indeed see a figure in the window. Did he know his victim? I don’t know. Maybe not.
In the video, I draw a diagram of the scene that would have made Picasso jealous, in an effort at taking Worku’s cleaning story seriously. How likely would a .40 calibre bullet fired from a car with windows of a given dimension hit a body at some distance away? Not likely at all, considering the gun could have been in any position when accidentally discharged it, and so the bullet could have breezed off at any angle. The circle of possible hitting spots expands mighty fast the further you get from the car.
Given what we know, the chances this woman, cancer or no, was pegged not “randomly”, but purposely, are pretty large.
If you want to know what the Chances Are of something, let me know in the comments.
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He looks like a fine fella. What are the stats now? 13/56?