Briggs

The Doomsday Argument Is Doomed: Flawed Application Of Bayes

The WSJ on 27 June 2019 published an essay by William Poundstone on the hoary Doomsday Argument. Many are fooled by this equation, which contains a fundamental, even glaring, flaw.…

Culture

Your Most Important Choice: Part I — Guest Post by Ianto Watt

Ante Up The world is a pretty confusing place. Considering the diverse nature of mankind's varied belief systems, that's not surprising. But that doesn't explain the depths of man's seeming…

Philosophy

Sphere Eversion, Free Will & Infinite Powers

Can a sphere be turned inside out, such that the outside becomes the inside, and vice versa, without creasing or tearing or poking a hole in the sphere? Obviously not.…

Statistics

The Epidemiologist Fallacy Strikes Again — Pesticides & Autism

Long-time readers will recall the epidemiologist fallacy is a shotgun marriage of the ecological fallacy and wee p-values. Make that and/or confidence intervals. For confidence intervals are equivalent to p-values…

Class Statistics

So-Called Random Numbers And Encryption: Update With Real-World Example

Psst. Hey, buddy. Word to the wise: "GQNZWZURUDPBFWDMEGBYIXGBGZRSVNHWOIQPPSH GXUVMZ". Keep it secret. That odd string of letters and spaces (well, once space) contains an encrypted message. In order to read…

Philosophy SAMT

Summary Against Modern Thought: Celestial Bodies Don’t Influence Our Bodies

Previous post. Today we start the second part of Book Three. Only another year and a half or so to go in Book Three. Then, finally, Book four! Our intellects…

Culture

The Week In Doom — Reality Based Ads Banned Edition

This has been a most busy week, the Doom accelerating, which accounts for the length of this post. Item The Case for Gay Reparation (NYT) Other countries are taking steps…

Statistics

Case Study Of How Easy It Is To Go Wrong

We used to talk a lot about the amygdala here: Yet Another Study "Proves" Liberal, Conservative Brain Differences (wee ps, amygdalas), Scientists Suddenly Discover Men Don't Understand Women (wee ps,…

Brian (bulaoren) on All Models Only Say What They Are Told To Say, And AI Is A ModelMarch 27, 2026
Logic, empiricism, wisdom... These solvents are without impact for people who have, so often, survived them. I believe this is…
spetzer86 on All Models Only Say What They Are Told To Say, And AI Is A ModelMarch 27, 2026
It's interesting that the commenters using AI prove the point that the use of a model yielding apparently random results…
JH on All Models Only Say What They Are Told To Say, And AI Is A ModelMarch 27, 2026
When brilliant minds join forces with advanced computers that execute tasks with precision and speed by following instructions, they achieve…
fergus on All Models Only Say What They Are Told To Say, And AI Is A ModelMarch 27, 2026
Post script. Looks like you are hiding well, for now, from the AI in the sky. I asked it if…
fergus on All Models Only Say What They Are Told To Say, And AI Is A ModelMarch 27, 2026
Did not read the article, just copy/pasted the number list to ChatGPT and it got right back with: Yes —…