Briggs

How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part II: Update

Read Part I Part II What we're after is a score that calculates how close a prediction is to its eventual observation when the prediction is a probability. Now there…

Statistics

Pascal’s Pensées, A Tour: V

Since our walk through Summa Contra Gentiles is going so well, why not let's do the same with Pascal's sketchbook on what we can now call Thinking Thursdays. We'll use…

Culture

What Might Pope Francis’s Upcoming Encyclical Look Like?

For the love of money is the root of all evil: which while some coveted after, they have erred from the faith, and pierced themselves through with many sorrows. So…

Statistics

How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part I

Part I of III All probability (which is to say, statistical) models have a predictive sense; indeed, they are only really useful in that sense. We don't need models to…

Statistics

Temperature Grids, Interpolation, And Over-Certainty

A reader writes: I am a fairly new reader of your blog, coming from WattsUpWithThat and reading with delight and frustration your thoughts on statistics and climate. I have a…

Philosophy SAMT

Summary Against Modern Thought: The Goodness Of God

See the first post in this series for an explanation and guide of our tour of Summa Contra Gentiles. All posts are under the category SAMT. Previous post. We've had…

Fun

First Computers, Radios & The Death Of Radio Shack

There it is. The TRS-80 Model I---with cassette storage! Z-80 microprocessor; over 4000 bytes of user memory, a.k.a. RAM, which---I shudder to write it---is well over 30,000 bits! I can't…

Philosophy

Question Of The Week: Will Religions Try to Convert Superintelligent AI? No

The ever hopeful transhumanist-but-still-human Zoltan Istvan is back asking "When Superintelligent AI Arrives, Will Religions Try to Convert It?" The answer is a qualified no. The qualification? There won't be…

hudbwu on The Intellectual Capacity Of Women by David StoveJune 30, 2026
Is this the essay in which he claims women are stupider because their bodies invest so much into reproduction they…
Johnno on Musk Doges Deaths: Researchers Say USAID Absence Kills Kills Kills!June 29, 2026
Complaining about deaths is bigoted micro-aggressive language targeted at minorities of peoplehood that believe in and worship Death as a…
Johnno on The Intellectual Capacity Of Women by David StoveJune 29, 2026
"Everything in woman is a riddle, and everything in woman hath one answer - it is called pregnancy." - Friedrich…
Cary D Cotterman on Musk Doges Deaths: Researchers Say USAID Absence Kills Kills Kills!June 29, 2026
People in the Western World, and parts of east Asia, figured out how to thrive. The Third World must figure…
Brian ( bulaoren) on Musk Doges Deaths: Researchers Say USAID Absence Kills Kills Kills!June 29, 2026
If I had a hammer... I am now overcome with guilt about all the windshield squeegee men I've waved off.…