Briggs

M. Night Shyamalan, Mel Gibson, and John Wayne

Part II of the Two-Envelope problem was not too friendly, so here's something that is. Via HotAir, I came across the site Marginal Revolution, in which was featured a graph…

Philosophy Statistics

The Two-Envelope Problem Solution: Part II

Read Part I first. We are in the peek first game here. The distribution of N When X is odd, and all X are discrete, we know we should always…

Philosophy Statistics

The Two-Envelope Problem Solution: Part I

Another probability "paradox", the two-envelope problem1, goes like this: Before you are two envelopes, A and B. One of them contains $X and the other $2X (which is equivalent to…

Culture Fun

Four Chords Is All You Need: The Limited Nature of Pop Music

Coming tomorrow: the infamous two-envelope problem, solved! More mathematical constructivism. But today, as it's Sunday, something light and airy...and non taxing. A "comedy rock" group which bills itself as the…

Statistics

St Petersburg Paradox; Games and Statistical Decisions; RIP David Blackwell

David Blackwell, who died two weeks ago, was one of the first mainstream statisticians to "go Bayesian." And for that and his unique skill in clearly explaining difficult ideas, we…

Statistics

How to Fool Yourself—And Others—With Statistics

See the news box to the left. I wrote this long ago and never used it. I do not love it. But since I am so busy, I haven't the…

Statistics

US Military Fatality Statistics: Have Suicides Increased?

All statistics were gathered from this DOD site. 2010 numbers were current as of 5 June this year; they were not part of the plots below. In 1983, the year…

Culture Philosophy

‘The Most Dangerous Philosopher in the West’

Extremely busy day, today. I have time for only the merest sketch of a post. The title is not mine, but a label given to Slavoj Zizek, the rock-star communist…

hudbwu on The Importance Of Not Making DecisionsFebruary 18, 2026
True worlds of wisdom. Some years ago, I bonded with a fellow online when we discovered we both don't rush…
Uncle Mike on The Importance Of Not Making DecisionsFebruary 18, 2026
“Belief clings, but faith lets go.” - Alan W. Watts, The Wisdom of Insecurity: A Message for an Age of…
Brian (bulaoren) on Don’t Take The ‘Long-Covid’ Alzheimer’s Study SeriouslyFebruary 18, 2026
I'm still wondering if that Tucson AZ. sheriff checked the glove for long covid.
Tars Tarkas on The Importance Of Not Making DecisionsFebruary 18, 2026
People hold more than one kind of belief (more than the two I am mentioning). There are beliefs that are…
NLR on The Importance Of Not Making DecisionsFebruary 18, 2026
"You do not have to believe. You can stay at uncertainty" That is a good point. With regards to the…