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William M. Briggs

Statistician to the Stars!

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About Briggs
Briggs is an internationally reviled thoughtcriminal, listed as One Of The Top 7 Dangerous Minds by the Hague.
Posted inStatistics

Pajama’s Media: Global warming accelerating once again

Surf on over to Pajamas Media for today's update. "I'm from the U.N. and I'm here to help."
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Posted inStatistics

Homogenization of temperature series: Part III

Be sure to see: Part I, Part II, Part III, Part IV, Part V We still have work to do. This is not simple stuff, and if we try and…
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Posted inFun

Schedule, Taiwan, More Homogenization

Landed in Taipei last night, after a bumpy fourteen-hour flight. I think the angry Air I teased last week was taking its revenge. From now, I'll have nothing but nice…
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Posted inPhilosophy

Homogenization of temperature series: Part II

Be sure to see: Part I, Part II, Part III, Part IV, Part V Aside: counterfactuals A counterfactual is statement saying what would be the case if its conditional were…
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Posted inStatistics

Homogenization of temperature series: Part I

Be sure to see: Part I, Part II, Part III, Part IV, Part V Introduction Time to get technical. First, surf over to Willis Eschenbach's gorgeous piece of statistical detective…
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Posted inStatistics

San Francisco Chronicle can’t make up its mind about global warming

In today's print edition, above the fold, is the item: Climate change: The Obama administration declares that global-warming from man-made greenhouse gases endangers health. Note carefully that it has declared…
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Posted inStatistics

Pajamas Media Post: ‘The Copenhagen Diagnosis’ Fails Logic 101

Head on over to Pajamas Media for today's post. Thanks to David Steinberg for providing the title.
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Posted inStatistics

Protesters gather in Copenhagen. Why?

Be sure to visit again tomorrow, for another article in this series. Time is up. Time to fight passion with calm reason. That always works, doesn't it? Those thousands of…
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  1. Darin Johnson on Class 70: Most Claims Of “Controlled For” Are Wrong: The Right WayNovember 9, 2025

    Thank you for your answer, Professor. So the prediction interval is useful for predicting the number of failures among the…

  2. Briggs on Class 70: Most Claims Of “Controlled For” Are Wrong: The Right WayNovember 8, 2025

    Darin, There is no interval around a probability (with esoteric exceptions not of interest to us). All your evidence is…

  3. Darin Johnson on Class 70: Most Claims Of “Controlled For” Are Wrong: The Right WayNovember 8, 2025

    I'm struggling to extrapolate this to the case when the thing I'm estimating is a probability. Let's say I observe…

  4. hudbwu on Changes Are Coming: Our Return to 1970sNovember 7, 2025

    I didn't come here for ~two months. Then I come back and ... *shit's gotten weird, son.* o.O At least…

  5. Northbrae on Diversity Patrol Scanning Citations For VictimsNovember 7, 2025

    Cheers from Florida, land of the ugly beasts known as womanatees. Meritocracy is now Ancient Herstory. Sheesh.

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