Philosophy – Page 101 – William M. Briggs

Pascal & Barzun On Scientism

Blaise Pascal was a man smarter than I and smarter than thou. He was a scientist, mathematician, probabilist, and was deeply, deeply Catholic. Pascal as scientist warned against trusting science…

Philosophy Statistics

Logical Probability Data Analysis, Measurement Error Example

Read the introduction to this first. If you don't, you will be lost, lost, lost. Logical probability answer to B The answer to B follows from A. The picture is…

Philosophy Statistics

What Do Means Mean?

Update In order that it does not get lost over the weekend, part two of this post will run on Sunday. This is part one of a two part post,…

Philosophy Statistics

The Alternative To P-Values

I apologize for the abruptness of the notation. It will be understandable only to a few. I don't like to use it without sufficient background because the risk of reification…

Philosophy Statistics

Everything Wrong With P-Values Under One Roof

Update 8 January 2019. This post has been superseded! There is an official paper of this material, greatly expanded and vetted. SEE THIS NEW POST. THE NEW PAPER: Here is…

Philosophy Statistics

On The Evidence From Experiments: Part IV

Read Part I, II, III. We are nearly at the point where we can say something about the candidate proposition of interest: "Treatment cures cancer of the albondigas." It is…

Philosophy Statistics

On The Evidence From Experiments: Part III

Read Part I, Part II first. All other propositions are contingent. For example, it is not necessarily true that your treatment should be a cure for cancer of the albondigas…

Philosophy Statistics

On The Evidence From Experiments: Part II

Read Part I first. Outcome 3. This sound like good news for you, since all treatment Bobs got better and no placebo Bobs did. Congratulations! The treatment might have caused…

JRob on Class 65: A Last Plea Never To Use Or Trust Statistical Evidence Like ThisSeptember 19, 2025
The spurious correlation example is the best proof that p values can't be used. That's what you have to hammer…
Glenn Ammons on Class 65: A Last Plea Never To Use Or Trust Statistical Evidence Like ThisSeptember 19, 2025
Thanks, this is a very understandable summary of your arguments against p-values and frequentism. There is a mistake in the…
J. Johnson on Class 65: A Last Plea Never To Use Or Trust Statistical Evidence Like ThisSeptember 18, 2025
Well you convinced me to never use p-values, and how to articulate to others why they shouldn’t either. I’d say…
Ed on Class 65: A Last Plea Never To Use Or Trust Statistical Evidence Like ThisSeptember 18, 2025
As a teacher who's seen, in the eyes of many a student (pun intended), the inglorious mist of complete misunderstanding,…
Uncle Mike on Class 65: A Last Plea Never To Use Or Trust Statistical Evidence Like ThisSeptember 18, 2025
I disagree with your hypothesis that "my career has largely been a failure". You shouldn't expect the world to immediately…