Philosophy – Page 129 – William M. Briggs

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part V

We have in our hands (via the predictive posterior) the probabilities that Susy's GPA is less than any number between 0 and 4, given that we accept the normal model…

Philosophy Statistics

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part IV

In Part I we had the simplest kind of model. We complicated it in Part II, built more structure in Part III, and today finally come to the most used…

Philosophy Statistics

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part III

We have had two cases so far: arbitrary models for counterfactual Martians (Part I) and a deduced model for an urn holding dichotomous objects (Part II). The logic was identical…

Philosophy Statistics

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part II

The models in Part I might not have "felt right" to you. But if that is so it is because your diet of probability examples has been too narrowly constricted.…

Philosophy Statistics

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part I

The rules of logic are simple. Use whatever evidence you have, and no other, to figure the probability of a conclusion. These rules are all we need to understand what…

Culture Philosophy

Studies Show Mike McQueary Did What You Would Have Done

A lot of wrist-twisting and hand-wringing over Mike McQueary's actions after he came across Penn State Coach Jerry Sandusky raping a 10-year-old boy in the showers. McQueary, who Mark Steyn…

Culture Philosophy

The Selfish Genes Of Dennett’s Atheists

If you're not busy this December 2nd and 3rd, and happen to be in the Buffalo area, you might drop in on the Center for Inquiry's symposium "Daniel Dennett and…

Philosophy Statistics

Inuitionist Math & Probability: Riemann Hypothesis Example

The principium tertii exclusi, the principle or law of the excluded middle, what is that? If there is a proposition B then it is either the case that B is…

Jess on Marbles!June 23, 2026
Somewhere, I have my brother's bag of marbles. I sometimes think I should go through them to see if there…
Cary D Cotterman on Marbles!June 23, 2026
In the summer of 1960, in Fresno, California, I lost my promotional "KYNO Top-Dog Radio" boulder in a game of…
Brian (bulaoren) on Marbles!June 23, 2026
Briggs! Have you lost your marbles? (somebody had to say it) When I was a little kid, I was nuts…
NLR on Marbles!June 23, 2026
Interesting
Franco on How Experts Use “Calamities” to Find Official Victims & Gain PowerJune 22, 2026
Probably my all time favorite has to be some variation of "War afflicts women and children most"