Almost all lines drawn across time series to indicate trends are fake, frauds, misleading, or are improper ascriptions of cause. Video https://youtu.be/svlzQb_EsDs Links: YouTube * Twitter – X * Rumble * Bitchute * Class Page * Jaynes Book * Uncertainty HOMEWORK: Find your own…

Cracker Barrel infamously tried changing their homey friendly warm and folksy logo to a stripped down dull almost monotone cool version. To remain "current". They also, reports say, redid the…

A doctor, a physician, has decided that the drug Profital™ if taken prophylactically will prevent the Screaming Willies most of the time, and that the drug's side effects won't scar…

The FDA should have gone probability. But they came close. They went Bayes. So announced FDA boss Marty Makar last week. Here's the document "Use of Bayesian Methodology in Clinical…

The signal+noise notion of time series is usually wrong. Most time series are pure signal, no noise. And since they are accidental series, models of them are correlational not causal.…

Here is a headline from Forbes 4 August 2022: Here, five short days later, is a headline from The Independent 9 August 2022: It is possible to reconcile these two…