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Winnowing the COVID-19 Numbers — Guest Post by John Carver
Posted inStatistics

Winnowing the COVID-19 Numbers — Guest Post by John Carver

This idependent article shows how confusing counting coronavirus deaths are. Regular readers, no Doom tomorrow. This is going to be a preliminary investigation into the COVID-19 numbers being presented hourly…
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The Fifth Column & Coming War On Us — Guest Post by Ianto Watt
Posted inStatistics

The Fifth Column & Coming War On Us — Guest Post by Ianto Watt

I would like to preface this post with the following thought. Never depart for Moscow after the Ides of March. Unless you like Russian winters, of course. Bear with me…
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Coronavirus Radio Replay: And Notes On Welcoming Tyranny
Posted inStatistics

Coronavirus Radio Replay: And Notes On Welcoming Tyranny

I originally had this scheduled for Monday, but shifted to Wednesday because of the z-score mania. So I'm sure there can be many more things to add to this. Last…
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Coronavirus Update XII — Who Has The Right Numbers?
Posted inStatistics

Coronavirus Update XII — Who Has The Right Numbers?

All the good stuff, caveats, code, data sources and explanations are linked, some in Update III, and the most important in Update II, Update IV, Update V, Update VI, Update…
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Z-Scores Are Misleading & Create Panic: Or, How Not To Compare Pandemics
Posted inStatistics

Z-Scores Are Misleading & Create Panic: Or, How Not To Compare Pandemics

A number of people panicked to the point their minds have turned to quivering jelly, angry at my calmness, have been emailing and tweeting me the equivalent of "Oh yeah,…
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An Egregious Statistical Horror Story — Reprint Of George Gilder Column
Posted inStatistics

An Egregious Statistical Horror Story — Reprint Of George Gilder Column

Used with permission from the original American Institute for Economic Research article. Regular readers: No Doom tomorrow. With the latest reports of plummeting death rates from all causes, this crisis…
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Comparing England & USA Covid & Historical Kill Rates (Sorry, England)
Posted inStatistics

Comparing England & USA Covid & Historical Kill Rates (Sorry, England)

Kissing Cousins Thanks to our new friend at In Proportion, a must-view site, we have daily deaths in England & Wales going back to 1993, and not just from 2013.…
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Is England’s Lockdown Racking Up The Bodies?
Posted inStatistics

Is England’s Lockdown Racking Up The Bodies?

Here (from the official source; h/t Meme Pusher) are the all-cause weekly deaths for England and Wales, 2010 until 17 April 2020. The blips peaking around January are (the assumption…
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  1. Johnno on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    But do we get time to explain to everyone and have them all sit down and have a discussion before…

  2. gareth on Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: ExamplesApril 29, 2026

    Timestamp 21:35: A "correction" from 0.8 to 1.0 is a "correction factor" of 1.25, not 0.2 (akshully wot you mean…

  3. Cato on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    There’s no point to a world without me; of course I press Red.

  4. Brian (bulaoren) on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    I think that pessimism morphs into cynicism when we perceive personal gain in our bleak expectations.

  5. Nate on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    The best explanation I saw on twitter was this rephrasing: "There is a blender. Jumping into the blender will kill…

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