Statistics – Page 117 – William M. Briggs

The Great Protest In England Draws To A Close

Have you heard this? Only 1% of people aged 18-24 identify as Church of England, according to the British Social Attitudes (BSA) survey for 2018. Even among over-75s, the most…

Class Statistics

Why The Bootstrap Seems To Work—And Why It Produces Over-Certainty

Let's drag the statistician's hoary threadbare ball-filled bag out of the cupboard to make a point. In it are 3 white balls and 2 black. Using the statistical syllogism, we…

Statistics

Paper Says Some Psychiatric Diagnoses “Scientifically Meaningless”

The title is an understatement: Heterogeneity in psychiatric diagnostic classification. This is a paper in Psychiatry Research by Kate Allsopp, John Read, Rhiannon Corcoran, and Peter Kinderman. Abstract (to which…

Statistics

Yes, There Is A Hot Hand In Basketball

On the Second of March in the Year of Our Lord One Thousand Nine Hundred Sixty-Two, well before the sport became another venue for pencil-necked political correctness, a basketball player…

Class Statistics

The Doomsday Argument Is Doomed: Flawed Application Of Bayes

The WSJ on 27 June 2019 published an essay by William Poundstone on the hoary Doomsday Argument. Many are fooled by this equation, which contains a fundamental, even glaring, flaw.…

Statistics

The Epidemiologist Fallacy Strikes Again — Pesticides & Autism

Long-time readers will recall the epidemiologist fallacy is a shotgun marriage of the ecological fallacy and wee p-values. Make that and/or confidence intervals. For confidence intervals are equivalent to p-values…

Class Statistics

So-Called Random Numbers And Encryption: Update With Real-World Example

Psst. Hey, buddy. Word to the wise: "GQNZWZURUDPBFWDMEGBYIXGBGZRSVNHWOIQPPSH GXUVMZ". Keep it secret. That odd string of letters and spaces (well, once space) contains an encrypted message. In order to read…

Statistics

Case Study Of How Easy It Is To Go Wrong

We used to talk a lot about the amygdala here: Yet Another Study "Proves" Liberal, Conservative Brain Differences (wee ps, amygdalas), Scientists Suddenly Discover Men Don't Understand Women (wee ps,…

McChuck on Happy New Year!January 1, 2026
Happy New Year! May your health and finances be stable or improving.
Johnno on Why The Drake Equation FailsJanuary 1, 2026
The Drake Equation, like Da Theory of da Evolution, and Relativity Math-a-Magics with Time-pretzel-balloons, all exist to keep Atheism afloat…
Johnno on How Did We Do In Our 2025 Predictions?December 31, 2025
I was right about the right! Conservative estimating does work! Always aim for mediocrity! The formula for success! Or at…
John Pate on Why The Drake Equation FailsDecember 31, 2025
Seems to me the obvious reason for the state of the world as we see it is that aliens are…
Zundfolge on How Did We Do In Our 2025 Predictions?December 31, 2025
Wow, I have never been as far off as I was this last year. I'll have to give some thought…