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Statistician to the Stars!

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Posted inStatistics

Pascal’s Mugging Is Silly: Events Don’t “Have” Probabilities

Before we begin, see this similar article about a different mugging scenario, which demonstrated that all probability is conditional and that decision isn't probability. Here's the serious version of Pascal's…
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Posted inFun Statistics

Statistician to the Stars For Hire!

Herein our semi-annual reminder that the purpose of this blog is mercenary. Filthy lucre is both impetus and goal of its daily readings. Moola, the spondulicks, the government's glory, the…
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Posted inStatistics

Muggings, Nuclear Devices, Probability & Decision

Somehow I ended up on the curious site LessWrong.com, directed by somebody with the nickname Yud (from Eliezer Yudkowsky). Odd isn't in it. Investigating it led me to Reddit and…
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Posted inStatistics

Don’t Use Statistical Models (When You Don’t Have To. Which Is Nearly Always)

Today, a convincing argument proving the current practice of probability and statistics is mostly wrong, or wrong-headed. The picture above does---and does not---show herbicide use in several countries by year…
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Posted inCulture Statistics

Science Asks: Why Are Angry Atheists Annoying?

What's more annoying than an atheist who harangues passersby about "rationality"? Easy answer: a scientist who announces a discovery about human behavior that was known by everybody since Adam. Our…
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Posted inStatistics

Scientific People Understand Reality Less, New Research Didn’t Study

Headline: Religious people understand the world less, study suggests, which derives from the peer-reviewed paper "Does Poor Understanding of Physical World Predict Religious and Paranormal Beliefs?" in Applied Cognitive Psychology…
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Posted inBook review Fun Statistics

The Full Briggs?

Our friend Joseph Moore at Yard Sale of the Mind, a site surely on everybody's list already, whose photograph appears atop this post, wrote It doesn't get much more civilized…
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Posted inStatistics

Stream: Pope Francis and President-Elect Trump Disagree on Global Warming Threat

Pope Francis and President-Elect Trump Disagree on Global Warming Threat: ... Yet the Holy Father will try and use his bully pulpit to influence the incoming administration. With the notable…
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  1. Robert Berger on Physics & Vertical Causation: The End of Quantum Reality by Wolfgang Smith ReviewedFebruary 1, 2026

    Thel Physics comments miss the entire metaphysical point ! (for the most part) We are now getting back to essence.…

  2. Robert Berger on Wolfgang Smith’s Vision Of Oneness — Guest Post by Ianto WattFebruary 1, 2026

    Whatever failures there are in the human writings and thought of Wolfgang Smith, he is the best mind on Physics…

  3. Paul Fischer on Class 77: Trendy Trends In Time SeriesJanuary 30, 2026

    Great lecture, William. Took a year of time series in grad school...all math, zero discussion of how fragile “trends” really…

  4. Martin on Fatima, Russia & You, Part IV — Guest Post by Ianto WattJanuary 30, 2026

    Brilliant. Thank you.

  5. spetzer86 on Class 77: Trendy Trends In Time SeriesJanuary 29, 2026

    You also need to consider the amount of trust in the data over time. If you have any reason to…

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