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William M. Briggs

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Posted inFun Statistics

Predictions For 2016—Register Yours Today!

It's that time of year again. Time to put your reputation on the line and show us your pudding, if that is the metaphor I want. Even if it isn't,…
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Posted inFun Statistics

How’d We Do On Our 2015 Predictions?

The answer to the post title's question is: I'm not so sure. Because why? Because the predictions everybody registered were lost when I was hacked last January. Why was I…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Gettier Problems & Epistemic Luck Are Distractions And No Problem

Regular readers will recall I do not think so-called Gettier problems have any force in epistemology. The "problems" only crop up because people make two mistakes: forgetting the difference between…
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Posted inStatistics

Theories Don’t Have Probabilities: Or, Is The Multiverse Real?

There was in Munich last week a three-day workshop on the soul of science. According to Quanta Magazine, the conference was driven by George Ellis and Joe Silk who wrote…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Comment On “Origin of probabilities and their application to the multiverse”

Today, since I'm very busy, a small-ish review---mere comments, really---of "Origin of probabilities and their application to the multiverse" by Andreas Albrecht and Daniel Phillips. I got this paper via…
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Posted inCulture Statistics

Stream: December 12, 2015: The Day Science Died. #COP21

Today's post is at The Stream: "December 12, 2015: The Day Science Died. #COP21". President Hollande of France slid to the microphone, and, with great Gallic aplomb, announced December 12th,…
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Posted inCulture Statistics

FiveThirtyEight Weighs In With Some Odd Affirmative Action Statistics

FiveThirtyEight ran the piece "Here's What Happens When You Ban Affirmative Action In College Admissions" that ran some dicey stats. Affirmative Action is, as all know, the practice of rewarding…
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Posted inCulture Statistics

Odds That a Panel Would ‘Randomly’ Be All Men?

There are no such thing as the "odds" a panel would be "randomly" all men. Yet The Atlantic thinks there could be, and so does a fellow named Greg Martin,…
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  1. Briggs on How Can You Tell If You Have ESP?June 30, 2025

    Spetzer, All good points. I go into many of them later in the chapter.

  2. spetzer86 on How Can You Tell If You Have ESP?June 30, 2025

    If the receiver and sender independently wrote down the guess / card with no verbal communication, it might be better.…

  3. JH on Class 56: The Best Model!June 29, 2025

    How can you make predictions in the big data era without using a model? Trust your gut.

  4. Jonas P. Kay on Which God Are You Rejecting? David Bentley Hart’s The Experience of God, Part IJune 28, 2025

    I answer all by saying you cannot get something from nothing. There is beauty in its simplicity and it is…

  5. Johnno on England’s Mandatory Suicide & WomenJune 27, 2025

    So what's the betting pool on the odds about when and in which country will be the first to perform…

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