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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Why Decision Analysis Isn’t Straightforward

Vast subject, decision analysis, but we can get a grip on a corner of it if we consider the simplest of problems, the do-don't do, yes-no, gonna happen-ain't gonna happen,…
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Posted inStatistics

You Need To Beat More Than Just The Odds

Note: this is a sketch of a talk I gave yesterday at a conference filled with computer programmers, network and software engineers. This is Las Vegas, the land of magic.…
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Posted inStatistics

Two Common Statistical Fallacies

Here are two fun fallacies, excerpted from a paper I wrote a couple of years ago in the Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons. For more on this sort of…
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Posted inStatistics

Real Versus Statistical Control

The ideal experiment is one in which control is exerted over all aspects of an environment. We desire to measure an outcome; for ease suppose this is a simple number.…
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Posted inBook review Statistics

Don’t Be Uncertain: Buy Uncertainty!

The Restoration has begun! Participate by buying Uncertainty: The Soul of Modeling, Probability & Statistics. Money spent wisely I do not say revolution, but Restoration. It is past time to…
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Posted inStatistics

A Simple (But Not Short) Stats Question

From reader JH: Thank you again for taking the time to write your blog. It is exceptionally thought-provoking. My job involves much of the six sigma "capability" studies and such.…
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Posted inStatistics

To Undergo Chemotherapy Or Not

Headline: "How I used math to conquer my cancer" by Michael Kaplan. Gist: fellow named Reitzen, 45, discovered he had kidney cancer. "The doctor came up to my house and…
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Posted inFun Statistics

Thoughts On One-Time Pads For Cell Phones

Best short description of one-time pads (OTPs) is from Jason Matthews, who is describing their use in the heyday of the cold war in the book Strangers on a Bridge…
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  1. C-Marie on AI Is Neither Artificial Nor IntelligentAugust 12, 2026

    Ok!!! Am ready!!! God bless, C-Marie

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  3. N.S. Palmer on You Can’t Con An Honest Man & The Case of Jason ArdayAugust 10, 2026

    The Academic Fallacy is what I called "the Existentialist Fallacy:" "Certain errors creep into most debates about social policy and…

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    I never heard of this Arday buffoon until a couple of weeks ago. As I read through the account of…

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    @ Uncle Mike Your comment reminds me that I really miss William F Buckley. He was often accused of dredging…

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