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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Tautology Tautology: Day Two Teaching

Since probability is the completion---we do not say "branch"---of logic, and logic is the science of the relations between propositions, probability is also the study of the relations between propositions.…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

I Was Wrong About Axioms: Day One Teaching

I was wrong about how belief in axioms are held. I was not wrong about the beliefs themselves, which is to say, the axioms which we all know and love…
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Posted inStatistics

Democrats Received 42% More Donations Than Republicans, Even Including Koch Brothers

Open Secrets tracks donations made to political parties in the States, a difficult thing to do, particularly since Americans can give in many different ways. Press reports on money are…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Nine Counter-Arguments To Frequentism

It is well to collect cogent proofs of frequentism's failings so that supporters of that theory can look upon them and find joy. Alan Hájek has done yeoman service in…
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Posted inStatistics

Female-Named Hurricanes Deadlier Than Males. Implicit Sexism Kills!

"Say, Elbert. What's the name of that there hurricane that's fixin' to pounce upon us?" "Lolita, I think." "What? Lolita!? I ain't evacuatin' nowheres! Not for no fee-male 'cane. Gimme…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

There Is No Such Thing As Intrinsic Probability

This is less fun than looking at the so-called principle of indifference, which you must read first, and I realize we're wading into the depths and on a Friday, but…
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Posted inStatistics

Failed Counterexamples To The Principle Of Indifference

What is the so-called Principle Of Indifference? A semi-screwy, semi-right idea in probability. To cadge an example from David Stove, let T be any tautology (a truth), then      Pr(Bob…
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Posted inStatistics

Can A Disgusting Smell Turn You Conservative And Against Gay “Marriage”?

Can sniffing a sticky stained organic tote bag that has seen one too many trips to Whole Foods turn you into the kind of activist that haunts street corners and…
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  1. Briggs on Class 49: Relevance & Importance Of Evidence In ModelsMay 9, 2025

    JH, My IQ is simplicity itself to estimate. I have no IQ. Pick up any stats books and look under…

  2. JH on Class 49: Relevance & Importance Of Evidence In ModelsMay 9, 2025

    Is there evidence that people believe probabilities, parameters, or mathematical objects exist physically in nature? The fact that mathematicians use…

  3. JH on Class 49: Relevance & Importance Of Evidence In ModelsMay 9, 2025

    Relevance is made more difficult when Y is allowed to vary, but the underlying idea is the same. Probability offers…

  4. Tim on Class 49: Relevance & Importance Of Evidence In ModelsMay 8, 2025

    What are you playing at, Briggs? Some high-falutin' model equation junk that'll get twisted by politicians in the end anyway?…

  5. Milton Hathaway on AI Cannot Hallucinate Nor LieMay 8, 2025

    I have been making heavy use of the more well-known LLMs lately. I use them almost exclusively as "regurgitation engines",…

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