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Posted inStatistics

Having A Kid Worse Than Divorce Or Death? Wee P-values Say Yes

When I first ascend to Emperor, after throwing into the dungeon any within earshot who cannot speak a full sentence without using 'like', my first act will be to create…
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Posted inStatistics

The Third Way Of Probability & Statistics: Beyond Testing and Estimation To Importance, Relevance, and Skill. New Paper

New paper up at Arxiv, which is a sort of précis to some key chapters in my book most relevant to probability and statistical modeling. Abstract: There is a third…
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Posted inStatistics

Video: The Crisis Of Evidence, Or, Why Probability & Statistics Cannot Discover Cause

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rbf_TXqEY-Y Thanks to Jeremy Snavely at DDP for putting up the talks. Here's a direct link. Here's the paper. Q & A starts around 52:30 minutes. Since some readers were…
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Posted inStatistics

Stream: What’s True and What’s False in Obama’s Latest Global Warming Claims

Today's post is at The Stream: What's True and What's False in Obama's Latest Global Warming Claims. There is so much hyperbolic language surrounding the topic of global warming that…
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Posted inStatistics

Keeping It Simple: The Value Of An Irreducibly Simple Climate Model. New Paper

The rebuttal to the criticism of our original peer-reviewed climate model paper "Why models run hot" has been published in Science Bulletin. It is also peer-reviewed, and therefore it must…
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Posted inCulture Statistics

Which Statistics Grad School If You’re Sick Of Hocus-Pocus P-values?

I received this query from a reader and thought it important enough for all of us to answer. I was hoping you could provide some advice for an aspiring statistician.…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Probability & Statistics Cannot Prove Cause

Correlation I was at the Doctors for Disaster Preparedness conference in Ontario (LA) California and gave my paper The Crisis Of Evidence: Why Probability And Statistics Cannot Discover Cause, which…
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Posted inCulture Philosophy Statistics

Writer Says Discovery Of Extraterrestrial Life Would Be Bad News For God. God Says Nope

The danger of writing about that in which you are ignorant is that you're bound to look foolish. Let's see an example. Jeff Schweitzer, who bills himself as a scientist…
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  1. EricKayScifi on Never Use Or Trust P-values (Pagan-Values)July 1, 2026

    @Cary, actually I heard the P values were actually really good in that study, but then the scientist couldn't believe…

  2. Cary D Cotterman on Never Use Or Trust P-values (Pagan-Values)July 1, 2026

    I just read an article that claimed ice cream is healthy food. I love ice cream, but for the last…

  3. Brian (bulaoren) on Never Use Or Trust P-values (Pagan-Values)July 1, 2026

    Sometimes the "P" is silent, as in "swimming pool".

  4. EricKayScifi on Musk Doges Deaths: Researchers Say USAID Absence Kills Kills Kills!June 30, 2026

    There's also a complete lack of understanding that 'synthetic' data IS NOT actual data. Nor is 'extrapolating and modelling' real…

  5. hudbwu on The Intellectual Capacity Of Women by David StoveJune 30, 2026

    Is this the essay in which he claims women are stupider because their bodies invest so much into reproduction they…

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