Statistics – Page 216 – William M. Briggs

Bayes Always Works: An Answer To Senn; Part V

Read Part IV. We're almost done. Only one more after this. There are examples without number of the proper use of Bayes's Theorem: the probability you have cancer given a…

Statistics

An Ensemble Of Models Is Completely Meaningful, Statistically: Update 2

The Answer to Senn will continue on Monday. Look for my Finger Lakes winery tour tasting notes Sunday! Several readers asked me to comment on an ensemble climate forecasting post…

Philosophy Statistics

All Probability Is Conditional: An Answer To Senn; Part IV

Read Part III. Still with me? Hope so, because we're only on the second page of Senn's article (but don't fret; we'll be skipping most of it). Review: in logical-probability…

Philosophy Statistics

Probability Isn’t “Fair”: An Answer To Senn; Part III

A quick reminder that we're trying to unpack the meaning of the "is fair" in the proposition "This die is fair," and trying to deduce the probability this proposition is…

Philosophy Statistics

There Is Only One Kind Of Probability: An Answer To Senn; Part II

Read Part I. Some of this material is explained in detail in this series. Just after the introduction, Senn starts his argument by claiming an "important distinction between two types…

Philosophy Statistics

Bayes Is More Than Probably Right: An Answer To Senn; Part I

Stephen Senn very kindly answered a post I wrote on p-values (Unsignificant Statistics: Or Die P-Value, Die Die Die) by sending me his "You May Believe You Are a Bayesian…

Statistics

Cornell Teaching Sojourn: Probability, Stats, & R

Time for the annual migration to Ithaca via a well accoutered golden coach (complete with undergraduates feeding professors grapes grown at Cornell's orchards). There I will linger for two weeks,…

Philosophy Statistics

Tobacco Ads Could Lead To Cancer Cure

Today's headline is true. True means that which is certain, without the possibility of error; that which is not false; that which accords with reality. It means that which is…

Brian (bulaoren) on The Dysgenics Of IVFNovember 12, 2025
...Addendum, this time more utilitarian than Kevorkian (HMmm... both Armenian?) An oncologist I know suspects a very real connection between…
Uncle Mike on In Which An Atheist Becomes Sputteringly Angry Over Theist’s ArgumentNovember 12, 2025
Brother Cary, look harder. Everything you see reveals God. The complexity of your eye reveals God. The act of seeing,…
McChuck on In Which An Atheist Becomes Sputteringly Angry Over Theist’s ArgumentNovember 12, 2025
CDC: You have been given an opportunity. You have vociferously declined it. You have made your choice, which is the…
Brian (bulaoren) on The Dysgenics Of IVFNovember 12, 2025
Back in the 1990s, progressives had a hero named Dr. Jack Kevorkian (aka " Dr. Death") Good old Jack might…
JRob on The Dysgenics Of IVFNovember 12, 2025
Other writers also have pointed out that IVF occurs when all the average sperm have an equal chance at conception,…