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William M. Briggs

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Posted inStatistics

Econometric Drinking Games, WSJ Edition: Update

Jim Fedako sent in this Wall Street Journal column, written by one Dan Ariely, a "Professor of Psychology and Behavioral Economics." A lady wrote Ariely asking for economic party games.…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Most Probabilities Aren’t Quantifiable

We've done this before in different form. But it hasn't stuck; plus we need this for reference. Not all probability is quantifiable. The proof for this is simple: all that…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Scrap Statistics, Begin Anew

You or I might perhaps be excused if we sometimes toyed with solipsism, especially when we reflect on the utter failure of our writings to produce the smallest effect in…
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Posted inStatistics

Selling Fear Is A Risky Business: Part Last

Read Part I, Part II. Don't be lazy. This is difficult but extremely important stuff. Let's add in a layer of uncertainty and see what happens. But first hike up…
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Posted inStatistics

Selling Fear Is A Risky Business: Part II

Read Part I. Seriously. Read it. Not everything is easy. Today's stuff is used to make decisions about your life, so pay attention. Cue the organ... When we last left…
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Posted inStatistics

Selling Fear Is A Risky—And Profitable—Business: Part I

Not a trick question: what's the difference between a risk of one in ten million and one of two in ten million? The official answer is "Not much." Though I…
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Posted inCulture Statistics

Global Warming To Cause New Crisis. What Will It Be?

Seems the Arctic ice sheet has refused to do what it was told by computer models. The models "conservatively" insisted the ice would be gone entirely by 2013, yet the…
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Posted inStatistics

Analysing Perceptions Of Cute Videos Of Threatened Species

Another peer-reviewed paper for you. "Tickled to Death: Analysing Public Perceptions of 'Cute' Videos of Threatened Species (Slow Lorises -- Nycticebus spp.) on Web 2.0 Sites" by K. Anne-Isola Nekaris…
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  1. McChuck on Some Sanity: Experts Sued For Creating Gender DelusionsFebruary 10, 2026

    Everybody remembers the Nazi book burning. The Left won't shut up about it. Almost nobody talks about what books were…

  2. NLR on Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGIFebruary 10, 2026

    The main reason people believe in AGI is because they want to. People want a superintelligent machine that will solve…

  3. Some Sanity: Experts Sued For Creating Gender Delusions – William M. Briggs on Is Laverne Cox Still A Man? Or, The Coming Transgender WarsFebruary 10, 2026

    […] and infiltrating the public in earnest about a dozen or so years ago. (In 2014 I wrote, “Is Laverne…

  4. Briggs on Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGIFebruary 10, 2026

    C-Marie, I knew you could.

  5. Briggs on Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGIFebruary 10, 2026

    Andrew, No, they're just bad model predictions. See the "hallucination" article I referenced.

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