Statistics – Page 220 – William M. Briggs

Bayes Always Works: An Answer To Senn; Part V

Read Part IV. We're almost done. Only one more after this. There are examples without number of the proper use of Bayes's Theorem: the probability you have cancer given a…

Statistics

An Ensemble Of Models Is Completely Meaningful, Statistically: Update 2

The Answer to Senn will continue on Monday. Look for my Finger Lakes winery tour tasting notes Sunday! Several readers asked me to comment on an ensemble climate forecasting post…

Philosophy Statistics

All Probability Is Conditional: An Answer To Senn; Part IV

Read Part III. Still with me? Hope so, because we're only on the second page of Senn's article (but don't fret; we'll be skipping most of it). Review: in logical-probability…

Philosophy Statistics

Probability Isn’t “Fair”: An Answer To Senn; Part III

A quick reminder that we're trying to unpack the meaning of the "is fair" in the proposition "This die is fair," and trying to deduce the probability this proposition is…

Philosophy Statistics

There Is Only One Kind Of Probability: An Answer To Senn; Part II

Read Part I. Some of this material is explained in detail in this series. Just after the introduction, Senn starts his argument by claiming an "important distinction between two types…

Philosophy Statistics

Bayes Is More Than Probably Right: An Answer To Senn; Part I

Stephen Senn very kindly answered a post I wrote on p-values (Unsignificant Statistics: Or Die P-Value, Die Die Die) by sending me his "You May Believe You Are a Bayesian…

Statistics

Cornell Teaching Sojourn: Probability, Stats, & R

Time for the annual migration to Ithaca via a well accoutered golden coach (complete with undergraduates feeding professors grapes grown at Cornell's orchards). There I will linger for two weeks,…

Philosophy Statistics

Tobacco Ads Could Lead To Cancer Cure

Today's headline is true. True means that which is certain, without the possibility of error; that which is not false; that which accords with reality. It means that which is…

Uncle Mike on Class 75: A Gentle Introduction To Time SeriesJanuary 8, 2026
Well then Tars, if depopulating China is your goal, they should definitely end restrictions on births. Because the fewer the…
Brian (bulaoren) on Class 75: A Gentle Introduction To Time SeriesJanuary 8, 2026
@Tars Tarkas While living in China, I never felt a need for more people or cars. I did, however, often…
Tars Tarkas on Class 75: A Gentle Introduction To Time SeriesJanuary 8, 2026
I don't know why they get all upset about the TF. When things change, things change. We are wrecking our…
Johnno on The Consent FallacyJanuary 7, 2026
Briggs, you FOOL! Even though I consented to reading this article by clicking on it, I have had regret and…
Johnno on Register Your Predictions For 2026!January 7, 2026
Alright, time to spread out the money... 1. EASY WEATHER PREDICTION: - A.I. and Cloud Data Centers continue to sky-rocket…