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William M. Briggs

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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Significance Magazine Announces Its Pro-Abortion Position

Significance Magazine waded into the culture wars by publishing "Deciding abortions by the toss of a coin?" by somebody called Michael A. Lewis. Here (in case the article is pulled)…
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Posted inStatistics

Same-Sex Marriage For And Against: Part III

Read Part II Question 3 Allard In question 3, the argument presented by Mr. Briggs is that marriage has very little to do with love. It is true that a…
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Posted inStatistics

Same-Sex Marriage For And Against: Part II

Read Part I. Question 2 Allard In question 2, Mr. Briggs asked the question "why two?" and later says that we can't use the historical fact that marriage is traditionally…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Objective Bayes Vs. Logical Probability (Vs. Frequentism)

Reader and colleague JH has rightly taken me to task (via email) for incorrectly calling, or rather misleadingly labeling, logical probability "objective Bayes." She pointed to this set of lecture…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Direct And Inverse Probability: The Bayesian Way

Class is almost over! Just three days (including today) left. I'm way behind reading comments. All logic, of which probability is an example, begins with a fixed list of premises…
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Posted inStatistics

Jumping The Infinity Shark: An Answer To Senn; Part Last

Read Part V From his page 55 (as before slightly edited for HTML/LaTex): Consider the case of a binary event where the two outcomes are success, S, or failure F…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Bayes Always Works: An Answer To Senn; Part V

Read Part IV. We're almost done. Only one more after this. There are examples without number of the proper use of Bayes's Theorem: the probability you have cancer given a…
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Posted inStatistics

An Ensemble Of Models Is Completely Meaningful, Statistically: Update 2

The Answer to Senn will continue on Monday. Look for my Finger Lakes winery tour tasting notes Sunday! Several readers asked me to comment on an ensemble climate forecasting post…
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  1. Richard on A Synchronicity Or Coincidence? What Is Behind Curious Events?March 9, 2026

    My son-in-law calls these "cosmic coincidences". We share with each other "interesting" or "unusual" ones we've each experienced. Of course,…

  2. Brian (bulaoren) on A Synchronicity Or Coincidence? What Is Behind Curious Events?March 9, 2026

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    I agree with the paper test; like the Chinese room argument, it is a way to illustrate that a mechanical…

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