Reader and colleague JH has rightly taken me to task (via email) for incorrectly calling, or rather misleadingly labeling, logical probability "objective Bayes." She pointed to this set of lecture…

Class is almost over! Just three days (including today) left. I'm way behind reading comments. All logic, of which probability is an example, begins with a fixed list of premises…

Read Part IV. We're almost done. Only one more after this. There are examples without number of the proper use of Bayes's Theorem: the probability you have cancer given a…

Read Part III. Still with me? Hope so, because we're only on the second page of Senn's article (but don't fret; we'll be skipping most of it). Review: in logical-probability…

A quick reminder that we're trying to unpack the meaning of the "is fair" in the proposition "This die is fair," and trying to deduce the probability this proposition is…

Read Part I. Some of this material is explained in detail in this series. Just after the introduction, Senn starts his argument by claiming an "important distinction between two types…