Statistics – Page 230 – William M. Briggs

Bayes Always Works: An Answer To Senn; Part V

Read Part IV. We're almost done. Only one more after this. There are examples without number of the proper use of Bayes's Theorem: the probability you have cancer given a…

Statistics

An Ensemble Of Models Is Completely Meaningful, Statistically: Update 2

The Answer to Senn will continue on Monday. Look for my Finger Lakes winery tour tasting notes Sunday! Several readers asked me to comment on an ensemble climate forecasting post…

Philosophy Statistics

All Probability Is Conditional: An Answer To Senn; Part IV

Read Part III. Still with me? Hope so, because we're only on the second page of Senn's article (but don't fret; we'll be skipping most of it). Review: in logical-probability…

Philosophy Statistics

Probability Isn’t “Fair”: An Answer To Senn; Part III

A quick reminder that we're trying to unpack the meaning of the "is fair" in the proposition "This die is fair," and trying to deduce the probability this proposition is…

Philosophy Statistics

There Is Only One Kind Of Probability: An Answer To Senn; Part II

Read Part I. Some of this material is explained in detail in this series. Just after the introduction, Senn starts his argument by claiming an "important distinction between two types…

Philosophy Statistics

Bayes Is More Than Probably Right: An Answer To Senn; Part I

Stephen Senn very kindly answered a post I wrote on p-values (Unsignificant Statistics: Or Die P-Value, Die Die Die) by sending me his "You May Believe You Are a Bayesian…

Statistics

Cornell Teaching Sojourn: Probability, Stats, & R

Time for the annual migration to Ithaca via a well accoutered golden coach (complete with undergraduates feeding professors grapes grown at Cornell's orchards). There I will linger for two weeks,…

Philosophy Statistics

Tobacco Ads Could Lead To Cancer Cure

Today's headline is true. True means that which is certain, without the possibility of error; that which is not false; that which accords with reality. It means that which is…

John Pate on Never Use Or Trust P-values (Pagan-Values)July 1, 2026
Never mind P values, follow the money.
EricKayScifi on Never Use Or Trust P-values (Pagan-Values)July 1, 2026
@Cary, actually I heard the P values were actually really good in that study, but then the scientist couldn't believe…
Cary D Cotterman on Never Use Or Trust P-values (Pagan-Values)July 1, 2026
I just read an article that claimed ice cream is healthy food. I love ice cream, but for the last…
Brian (bulaoren) on Never Use Or Trust P-values (Pagan-Values)July 1, 2026
Sometimes the "P" is silent, as in "swimming pool".
EricKayScifi on Musk Doges Deaths: Researchers Say USAID Absence Kills Kills Kills!June 30, 2026
There's also a complete lack of understanding that 'synthetic' data IS NOT actual data. Nor is 'extrapolating and modelling' real…