Statistics – Page 231 – William M. Briggs

Bayes Always Works: An Answer To Senn; Part V

Read Part IV. We're almost done. Only one more after this. There are examples without number of the proper use of Bayes's Theorem: the probability you have cancer given a…

Statistics

An Ensemble Of Models Is Completely Meaningful, Statistically: Update 2

The Answer to Senn will continue on Monday. Look for my Finger Lakes winery tour tasting notes Sunday! Several readers asked me to comment on an ensemble climate forecasting post…

Philosophy Statistics

All Probability Is Conditional: An Answer To Senn; Part IV

Read Part III. Still with me? Hope so, because we're only on the second page of Senn's article (but don't fret; we'll be skipping most of it). Review: in logical-probability…

Philosophy Statistics

Probability Isn’t “Fair”: An Answer To Senn; Part III

A quick reminder that we're trying to unpack the meaning of the "is fair" in the proposition "This die is fair," and trying to deduce the probability this proposition is…

Philosophy Statistics

There Is Only One Kind Of Probability: An Answer To Senn; Part II

Read Part I. Some of this material is explained in detail in this series. Just after the introduction, Senn starts his argument by claiming an "important distinction between two types…

Philosophy Statistics

Bayes Is More Than Probably Right: An Answer To Senn; Part I

Stephen Senn very kindly answered a post I wrote on p-values (Unsignificant Statistics: Or Die P-Value, Die Die Die) by sending me his "You May Believe You Are a Bayesian…

Statistics

Cornell Teaching Sojourn: Probability, Stats, & R

Time for the annual migration to Ithaca via a well accoutered golden coach (complete with undergraduates feeding professors grapes grown at Cornell's orchards). There I will linger for two weeks,…

Philosophy Statistics

Tobacco Ads Could Lead To Cancer Cure

Today's headline is true. True means that which is certain, without the possibility of error; that which is not false; that which accords with reality. It means that which is…

The True Nolan on University of California Prof Tries To Save System From DIEingJuly 20, 2026
?I used to know a guy who didn't speak German. But that didn't stop him from sounding like he spoke…
spetzer86 on Believing In God Makes You Crave Potato Chips, Say AcademicsJuly 20, 2026
How are hash browns "ultra-processed"? They are essentially baked potatoes that were shredded and then fried until their collective exteriors…
Jethro Rusticus on Believing In God Makes You Crave Potato Chips, Say AcademicsJuly 20, 2026
Alternative interpretation of the data: Believing in God mKes you less depressed so you eat rather than starve yourself like…
John W. Garrett on The Equality ParadoxJuly 20, 2026
In the 20th century, it was quite easy to tell who the liars of Wall Street were. They all wore…
Hun on The Equality ParadoxJuly 20, 2026
This is prole drift. In the past, the ruling class consisted of people who had to fight or have some…