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Posted inStatistics

Nate Silver’s Obama Prediction: What Does It Mean?

It was Sophocles who first noted the truism, "No one loves the messenger who brings bad news." But the converse is also true. As it is written (in Romans 10:15),…
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Posted inStatistics

Intrade’s Record In Picking Presidents: Is There Market Manipulation?

An "influential forecast" is one in which knowledge of the prediction changes the uncertainty in the thing being predicted. Consider a (respected) political opinion poll which announces Candidate B has…
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Posted inStatistics

Risk Analysis And Over Certainty: Classical vs. Bayesian vs. Predictive Statistics

There are two main uses of statistics by civilians, defined as folks who use statistics, who may have even had a class or two in the subject, but who are…
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Posted inStatistics

Lewandowsky’s Confusion About Statistics

Still at conference, so just a short plug for learning about which you speak. Stephan Lewandowsky, who believes JFK shot at the moon landings and that's why the globe has…
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Posted inStatistics

Eating Chocolate Increases Chance Of Nobel Prize, P< 0.05

Yesterday, those noble Nobel fellows, the same committee that honored President Obama---what was it? six, seven days after he assumed office?---, gave this year's Peace Prize to the European Union.…
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Posted inStatistics

The Future of Scientific Publications: Abandon Journals?

It took three years--or was it four?---for a paper I submitted to the august journal Annals of Statistics to wend its way through peer review. When it came back to…
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Posted inStatistics

Debate Thread: “Where Was This Romney Before?” Always There

Chris Matthews looked as though he saw the men with the nets coming for him, the tingles evidently having traveled from his leg and lodging in his frontal cortex. An…
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Posted inStatistics

Scientists: GOP Women More Feminine Than Dems

Science! Unadulterated, peer-reviewed, glorious science! What else but science could have provided this picture, which was taken whole from the University of California press release on the shocking new scientific,…
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  1. Cary D Cotterman on Confirmation Bias In The Minneapolis ShootingJanuary 13, 2026

    No news source is perfect. Fox openly owns their conservative point of view. NPR lies about being unbiased. Even with…

  2. Tars Tarkas on Confirmation Bias In The Minneapolis ShootingJanuary 13, 2026

    "(I have in the queue a story on confirmation bias of academic Experts that confirms my bias that academic Experts…

  3. Stan on Confirmation Bias In The Minneapolis ShootingJanuary 13, 2026

    Around 2013, I obtained all death certificate data from the state of California for the years 2000-2012. I posted on…

  4. Briggs on Sports Betting Is An Excellent Way To Lose MoneyJanuary 13, 2026

    Anon. I believe you'll find they are the same. I did a little shorthand by first taking the absolute value…

  5. Anonymous on Sports Betting Is An Excellent Way To Lose MoneyJanuary 13, 2026

    Errata: your moneyline formula should have (x - 100) in the denominator for -x.

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