Statistics – Page 240 – William M. Briggs

What A Prediction Is And What It Is Not: Part IV

There is a technical distinction between a scenario and a prediction, though the line is fine and often disputable. Many scenarios are merely intolerably loose, and therefore useless, predictions. The…

Philosophy Statistics

What A Prediction Is And What It Is Not: Part III

This inescapable fact, that the conditioning evidence is only assumed and is therefore subjectively defined, is responsible for much acrimony about accuracy. Thus the reason we attempt to eliminate wiggle…

Philosophy Statistics

What A Prediction Is And What It Is Not: Part II

Thanks to DAV for reminding me of a clarification. See yesterday's comments. This post is mostly bookkeeping. Tomorrow we do more examples. Sometimes, in contracts as in predictions, certain "unexpected…

Philosophy Statistics

What A Prediction Is And What It Is Not: Part I

I say that the Detroit Tigers, the baseball team---baseball being the most sublime of all sports, and this team being the game's most stalwart representative---will beat the Boston Red Sox…

Statistics

Statistics Compared To Ladies Of Ill Repute?

While Theoretical Statistics is (mainly) a decent albeit rather boring mathematical discipline (Probability Theory is much more exciting), so called Applied Statistics is in its big part a whore. Finding…

Book review Statistics

What’s Up With The Sun? A New Book — Guest Post by Pål Brekke

Pål Brekke as a new book about the orange orb of delight that hovers over us. Our Explosive Sun is a colorful introduction that would be good for newcomers or…

Statistics

I’m Selected As An IPCC Expert Reviewer

Update Dear William Briggs, The IPCC Working Group I (WGI) Co-Chairs are pleased to announce the Expert Review of the First Order Draft (FOD) of the WGI contribution to the…

Philosophy Statistics

Can fMRI Predict Who Believes In God? Part VII (Last)

Read Part I, Part II, Part III, Part IV, Part V, Part VI, Part VII There are a number of serious difficulties with this study. The experimental protocol is unusual;…

John Pate on IQ Is Not IntelligenceJune 7, 2025
Just accept the London School Briggs: IQ and the Big Five explain it all. Be a man and nail your…
JH on Class 53: Laplace Was Right!June 6, 2025
Since you used (8.7) at the beginning of the video, let me try again. A calculus fact: If f(N) approaches…
When Chief Editors’ reviews go off the rails: Frontiers’/Dr. Eddy Davelaar’s criticism of our accepted meta-analysis and our detailed response – bobuttl.org on The World’s Easiest Sociological Prediction Has Been VerifiedJune 5, 2025
[…] William M. Briggs (2024, Feb 8): The World’s Easiest Sociological Prediction Has Been Verified… […]
Milton Hathaway on Even The Woke Say Science Is Petering OutJune 4, 2025
I seem to be missing something here. The "Average CD" chart shows a marked decline, while the "Total Papers" chart…
Uncle Mike on Even The Woke Say Science Is Petering OutJune 4, 2025
The problem, in a nutshell, is the trending longitudinal bibliometrics of stochastic heuristics. Vouchsafe the imperative and quotidian drivel perpetuates.