George Box said, “Remember that all models are wrong; the practical question is how wrong do they have to be to not be useful.” This is usually misremembered as the equivalent, and […]
Seasonal Climate Forecasts Do Not Have Skill
David Lavers is the lead author in a GRL paper “A multiple model assessment of seasonal climate forecast skill for applications.” Lavers et al. checked eight different climate models and found that, […]
R Lectures Update
Lectures are on hold for the next two weeks. I’ll be traveling and unable to to create any new award-winning videos. Nor any new non-award-winning videos.
Predictive Statistics: GPA Case Study, Part II
Read Part I : Download the Quirk’s article. To understand why ordinary regression assumptions are bad, we need to look at some (new data) scenarios. Suppose that Bob had a HGPA of […]
Predictive Statistics: GPA Case Study, Part I
Read Part II : Download the Quirk’s article. Predictive statistics differs from classical (frequentist and Bayesian) practices because it focuses on observables and not metaphysical entities. Observables are the data we can […]
Ayn Rand and the Differences Between Groups
Roger Kimball is causing a stink, a predictable yet enjoyable stink, by publishing Anthony Daniels’s review of an Ayn Rand biography in this month’s The New Criterion. There are two enduring internet-subjects […]
R Lecture 7: Reading External Data Part II
10 minutes is a shockingly short period of time! Today, some common errors you WILL see when you try to read in data. The code below has many typos. Watch for Windows […]
Climate Skeptic Conspiracy Strikes!
I have never been part of a conspiracy before—there was never the opportunity—so you can imagine how excited I am about finally joining one. It’s true that, in 1978, I, my sister, […]
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