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William M. Briggs

Statistician to the Stars!

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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

The Lady Tasting Tea: Bayes Versus Frequentism; Part III (update)

Read Part I, Part II. The text has again been expanded and corrected. We have our model in hand. "Has the ability", our model, says (see Part II) that the…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

The Lady Tasting Tea: Bayes Versus Frequentism; Part II (update)

Read Part I: Again, the text (up to this part) has been corrected and expanded. Recall our overarching---our only---goal. We want to know whether the sweet old lady "has the…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

The Lady Tasting Tea: Bayes Versus Frequentism; Part I (updated)

Since the subject arose yesterday, and for other reasons which I'll explain later, I thought we should revisit this series, which ran a year ago. I have edited and expanded…
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Posted inStatistics

Dawkins On The Double-Blind Experiment

The Edge every year asks top science celebrities a penetrating, yet fun, always fun, question. Last year's was "What scientific concept would improve everybody's cognitive toolkit?" One of the correspondent…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Statement Of Teaching Philosophy

Regular readers will know that I have been searching for (continuous) employment as a teacher. Most colleges and universities ask applicants to supply "a statement of teaching philosophy", while a…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

The Jeffreys-Lindley Paradox Isn’t

Background A paradox is a mistake in thinking; an artificial, human creation which usually arises because a conclusion which follows from a set of beloved premises is itself unloved. Twitter…
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Posted inCulture Fun Statistics

Oscar Predictions: Money, Men, & Maturity Make The Difference

Last year, my number two son1 and I created a model to predict the Oscar winning movie (the original post, and the follow up). We found the following characteristics most…
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Posted inFun Statistics

Scratch-off Lottery Tickets: Expected Payouts, A Hidden Benefit?

Update See the comments, but thanks to readers' arguments I believe I was wrong in an essential calculation. I've reworked the text to correct my error, which was small in…
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  1. Cary D Cotterman on Black Women Can’t Do Physics As Well As White Men, Says ResearcherNovember 19, 2025

    "Damn, those white people are smart! --Duke Ellington, upon first seeing the Golden Gate Bridge

  2. shawn marshall on Black Women Can’t Do Physics As Well As White Men, Says ResearcherNovember 19, 2025

    Are there 700 million black africans? Has whitey screwed all of them?

  3. Uncle Mike on Black Women Can’t Do Physics As Well As White Men, Says ResearcherNovember 19, 2025

    Not to mention their reproductivity. Or lack of both. One might hope that they change their focus from physics to…

  4. Williis Eschenbach on Why Study Probability?November 19, 2025

    Thanks, my friend, appreciated. w.

  5. Brian (bulaoren) on Black Women Can’t Do Physics As Well As White Men, Says ResearcherNovember 19, 2025

    I have not read the paper, and I doubt I ever will. Still, there is another aspect of this issue…

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