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William M. Briggs

Statistician to the Stars!

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Posted inStatistics

How To Present Anything As Significant. Update: Nature Weighs In

Update The paper on which this post was based has hit the presses which was used as an occasion for Nature to opine that, just maybe, that some of the…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

The Probability Of Nonsense In Science: Complexity & Verification

This is a work in progress, and today is a busy day. This is just for fun and for you to play with. The more complex the field of study,…
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Posted inFun Statistics

Sleeping Beauty Probability Problem

Update This has been moved up from its original 29 Feb 2012 date on 23 March 2012 to allow additional comments. Update This has been moved up from its original…
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Posted inStatistics

Boy Sues Government To Stop Global Warming. James Hansen Comes Out Of Hiding

I had thought the furor was over, that those who held ultramontane views about climatologists like James "Lock me up!" Hansen (see below the fold) had given up and gone…
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Posted inCulture Statistics

Many Lie About Their Support Of Gay Marriage: Study

Thanks to New York Times's (yes) Russ Douthat who alerted us to the paper "Findings from a Decade of Polling on Ballot Measures Regarding the Legal Status of Same­ Sex…
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Posted inStatistics

Study Finds 9-Month-Old Babies Are Racist

MSNBC reports this: University of Massachusetts Amherst researchers placed sensors on the heads of 9-month-old babies...and measured brain activity when infants were shown pictures of white and black faces expressing…
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Posted inCulture Philosophy Statistics

The Dire And Depressing Implications Of Science As Scientism: Two Introductions

A long introduction... Scientism is the fallacy that all that is known and all that can be known, can only be known through scientific methods: that which is testable is…
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Posted inCulture Statistics

Why Republicans Deny Science—And Reality: Request For Help

Update The link to Sam Harris's abysmal study are now provided. That is the (modified) subtitle of the sanctimoniously self-satisfied Chris Mooney's new book, "The Republican Brain: The Science of…
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  1. C- Marie on Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGIFebruary 9, 2026

    I understood much of the logic of this. Thank you, Matt! God bless, C- Marie

  2. shawn marshall on Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGIFebruary 9, 2026

    I asked Grok to assign probabilities to all the known facts about the Shroud of Turin and then calculate a…

  3. Rudolph Harrier on Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGIFebruary 9, 2026

    It's an interesting thought experiment. However, we will never have a practical implementation of the test because it would be…

  4. Briggs on Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGIFebruary 9, 2026

    hudbwu, You could be right.

  5. hudbwu on Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGIFebruary 9, 2026

    Caution: it may be that intelligence can not be confirmed by any behavioral test. For example, free will can not…

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