Statistics – Page 250 – William M. Briggs

What Probably Isn’t: Heat Waves and Nine Feet Tall Men: Part I

Probability is screwy, and we statisticians do a horrible, rotten job of teaching it. The first thing students learn in normal statistics classes is about "measures of central tendency" or…

Statistics

Men Nine Feet Tall And Bayes Theorem

The OFloinn put up a most readable and recommended essay When is Weather Really "Climate"? and in one of the comments a reader named Gyan in part said: Many economists…

Culture Statistics

The Decline And Increase Of Mainstream Religions In The USA: With Pictures!

The Episcopals, like many other old guard protesting religions, are in trouble. Jay Akasie tells us that at this year's annual conclave, the Episcopalian leadership had their most serious discussions…

Philosophy Statistics

Certainty & Uncertainty: Logical Probability & Statistics

Since we have spent the weekend with these matters, I thought it appropriate to include the first part of the Introduction to the new book I've been working on. It…

Philosophy Statistics

More On The 1 in 1.6 Million Heat Wave Chance

Yesterday we looked at NCDC's claim that the 13-month stretch of "above-normal" temperatures had only a 1 in 1.6 million chance of occurring. Let's today clarify the criticism. The NCDC…

Philosophy Statistics

Chance Of Heat Wave Only 1 in 1.6 Million? Or, Probability Gone Wrong

My dad took a swing with his nine-iron and the wiffle simulacrum of a golf ball took flight, arched upwards, spun left and, without bouncing, landed atop my favorite blade…

Fun Statistics

How Good Are You At Making Sports Predictions?

I'm traveling today so I thought I'd remind us of ShortBurst sports, Edgehogs as was. Make picks in all major sports, even the God-help-us Olympics, and track your prognosticatory prowess.…

Statistics

Observational Bayes > Parametric Bayes > Hypothesis Testing < Looking

This is a completion of the post I started two weeks ago which shows that "predictive" or "observational" Bayes is better than classical, parametric Bayes, which is far superior to…

John Pate on Never Use Or Trust P-values (Pagan-Values)July 1, 2026
Never mind P values, follow the money.
EricKayScifi on Never Use Or Trust P-values (Pagan-Values)July 1, 2026
@Cary, actually I heard the P values were actually really good in that study, but then the scientist couldn't believe…
Cary D Cotterman on Never Use Or Trust P-values (Pagan-Values)July 1, 2026
I just read an article that claimed ice cream is healthy food. I love ice cream, but for the last…
Brian (bulaoren) on Never Use Or Trust P-values (Pagan-Values)July 1, 2026
Sometimes the "P" is silent, as in "swimming pool".
EricKayScifi on Musk Doges Deaths: Researchers Say USAID Absence Kills Kills Kills!June 30, 2026
There's also a complete lack of understanding that 'synthetic' data IS NOT actual data. Nor is 'extrapolating and modelling' real…