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William M. Briggs

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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Statement Of Teaching Philosophy

Regular readers will know that I have been searching for (continuous) employment as a teacher. Most colleges and universities ask applicants to supply "a statement of teaching philosophy", while a…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

The Jeffreys-Lindley Paradox Isn’t

Background A paradox is a mistake in thinking; an artificial, human creation which usually arises because a conclusion which follows from a set of beloved premises is itself unloved. Twitter…
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Posted inCulture Fun Statistics

Oscar Predictions: Money, Men, & Maturity Make The Difference

Last year, my number two son1 and I created a model to predict the Oscar winning movie (the original post, and the follow up). We found the following characteristics most…
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Posted inFun Statistics

Scratch-off Lottery Tickets: Expected Payouts, A Hidden Benefit?

Update See the comments, but thanks to readers' arguments I believe I was wrong in an essential calculation. I've reworked the text to correct my error, which was small in…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

What Is Cause? — Guest Post by DAV

Regular readers will recognize DAV as a regular contributer whose humorous voice of reason has kept many conversations on target. Today he presents ideas to spur a discussion of causality,…
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Posted inStatistics

Last Night’s Republican Debate

Off in service today, so only a brief word. Debate results: Romney had an easy base hit to center field, Gingrich doubled but with no men on base, Santorum hit…
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Posted inStatistics

Heartlandgate Versus Climategate

There are some key differences between Climategate 1.0 and 2.0, where emails from scientists and their hangers on were leaked, and Heartlandgate (am I the first to use this appallingly…
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Posted inStatistics

Heartland Documents Leaked, Massaged, Faked

First thing I did, after hearing that the Heartland Institute's budget was leaked, was to pore through it looking for my name in the hopes of seeing how much moola…
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  1. Jethro Rusticus on Believing In God Makes You Crave Potato Chips, Say AcademicsJuly 20, 2026

    Alternative interpretation of the data: Believing in God mKes you less depressed so you eat rather than starve yourself like…

  2. John W. Garrett on The Equality ParadoxJuly 20, 2026

    In the 20th century, it was quite easy to tell who the liars of Wall Street were. They all wore…

  3. Hun on The Equality ParadoxJuly 20, 2026

    This is prole drift. In the past, the ruling class consisted of people who had to fight or have some…

  4. Brian (bulaoren) on Believing In God Makes You Crave Potato Chips, Say AcademicsJuly 20, 2026

    Is this God salience said to affect our other appetites?

  5. N.S. Palmer on Hume’s Guillotine, Euclid’s Catapult: Induction, Axioms, and Objective EthicsJuly 17, 2026

    "Some moral beliefs are universally true because they are based on human nature. However, these beliefs are essentially factual beliefs:…

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