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William M. Briggs

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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Ten Politically Incorrect So-Called Truths About Human Nature: 6 – 10

See 1 - 5 here. 6. Beautiful people have more daughters And are thus more likely to divorce? And thus less likely to have fewer kids than the ugly people…
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Posted inFun Statistics

Top 10 Sure Things: Which NFL Games Were The Easiest To Pick?

Today's post is over at Edgehogs. I wanted to see how extreme bookies would go in making NFL picks, as judged by the probabilities of home-team wins as derived from…
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Posted inFun Statistics

How To Find True Love: The Marriage Problem

MEB + ARK, a.k.a. the Haystack Hunters, wrote the following: As fans of your work in real life probability and breaking the law of averages, we were hoping you could…
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Posted inStatistics

Hurricane Predictors Admit They Can’t Predict Hurricanes

My heart soared like a hawk1 after learning that Messieurs Philip Klotzbach and William Gray have admitted in print the hardest thing scientists can ever confess. That they were wrong.…
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Posted inStatistics

CARB Misinterprets Statistics, Calls For Elimination Of Dust

The California Air Resources Board, or CARB, has issued a press release that shows how easy it is to misunderstand statistics. That most do---fail to comprehend what statistical results are…
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Posted inFun Statistics

Are Moneylines Useful In Predicting NFL Games?

Today's post is over at Edgehogs. I wanted to know how good moneylines were at predicting wins and loses. Since Las Vegas is still in business, it was a good…
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Posted inStatistics

Increasing Replication Of Un-Reproducibility In Science

Best science picture of the year, courtesy of the Wall Street Journal (and thanks to reader Dan Hughes): In just the last decade---ten mere years---the number of "peer-reviewed" journal articles…
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Posted inStatistics

Geo-engineering The Climate: Durban Global Warming Conference

A group of scientists, funded generously by Big Green, which includes the Environmental Defense Fund, have released a report to coincide with the efforts of the Durban Global Warming Conference,…
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