Statistics – Page 270 – William M. Briggs

The Great Bayesian Switch

Update: See this post on the definition of confidence and credible intervals. Submitted for your approval, a new paper. A polemic describing in nascent terms the paradise that awaits us…

Statistics

What A Prediction Is And What It Is Not: Part IV

There is a technical distinction between a scenario and a prediction, though the line is fine and often disputable. Many scenarios are merely intolerably loose, and therefore useless, predictions. The…

Philosophy Statistics

What A Prediction Is And What It Is Not: Part III

This inescapable fact, that the conditioning evidence is only assumed and is therefore subjectively defined, is responsible for much acrimony about accuracy. Thus the reason we attempt to eliminate wiggle…

Philosophy Statistics

What A Prediction Is And What It Is Not: Part II

Thanks to DAV for reminding me of a clarification. See yesterday's comments. This post is mostly bookkeeping. Tomorrow we do more examples. Sometimes, in contracts as in predictions, certain "unexpected…

Philosophy Statistics

What A Prediction Is And What It Is Not: Part I

I say that the Detroit Tigers, the baseball team---baseball being the most sublime of all sports, and this team being the game's most stalwart representative---will beat the Boston Red Sox…

Statistics

Statistics Compared To Ladies Of Ill Repute?

While Theoretical Statistics is (mainly) a decent albeit rather boring mathematical discipline (Probability Theory is much more exciting), so called Applied Statistics is in its big part a whore. Finding…

Book review Statistics

What’s Up With The Sun? A New Book — Guest Post by Pål Brekke

Pål Brekke as a new book about the orange orb of delight that hovers over us. Our Explosive Sun is a colorful introduction that would be good for newcomers or…

Statistics

I’m Selected As An IPCC Expert Reviewer

Update Dear William Briggs, The IPCC Working Group I (WGI) Co-Chairs are pleased to announce the Expert Review of the First Order Draft (FOD) of the WGI contribution to the…

Trebics on Viewer Asks: Why Do I Bother?October 4, 2026
Truth, Goodness, Beauty. Thank you for dispensing truth, much needed. You, also, like Isaiah, talk mostly to the remnant, and…
APC Carrier on Viewer Asks: Why Do I Bother?October 3, 2026
it is not about the carelessness of others or their responsiveness. It is about the fact that if you are…
C-Marie on Academics Call For The Killing Of Babies In “After-Birth” AbortionsOctober 1, 2026
Why do those who are promoting the One World Government want children destroyed? Because then governing will be easier with…
sandy on Academics Call For The Killing Of Babies In “After-Birth” AbortionsOctober 1, 2026
What you are witnessing is not lunacy or saying silly things for effect. This is an example of normalization --…
Briggs on Viewer Asks: Why Do I Bother?October 1, 2026
All, Thanks for the kind words and inspiration, everybody. It means a lot to me.