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William M. Briggs

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Posted inStatistics

2000 Scientists Demand Climate Action! Part I

Let's suppose everything you have heard about global warming is true. It really will warm by a half-degree Centigrade by 2050, or even by three-quarters of a degree, or whatever.…
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Posted inStatistics

Democrats’ Appalling Budget Wishcast

Update No extra charge for today's initially misspelled headline. It is a logical fallacy to say that it OK for John to lie, cheat and steal because Mary lied, cheated…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

The Science News Statistical Article: Odds Are, It’s Wrong

Many (thank you everybody!) people sent me the "Odds Are, It's Wrong" article by Tom Siegfried and have asked me to comment. Below are the key points; I will assume…
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Posted inStatistics

Obamacare Predictions: Part I

Here are some things I think will happen if Obamacare is passed. When I say "you" or "your", I mean "people on average." Obviously, some people will benefit. This is…
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Posted inStatistics

Randomized Trials Are Not Needed

I promised this article a long time ago: I hope these well known calculations are enough to give the gist. Randomized controlled trials are supposed to be the gold standard…
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Posted inStatistics

Final Healthcare Showdown: Government vs. Liberty

There's Nancy Pelosi, Six Gun of State strapped to her side, the sun burning overhead. And there's you, armed only with Freedom, thirty paces off. It's a standoff! If you…
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Posted inStatistics

Climate Model Uncertainty: Part II

Read Part I The Analysis (cont.) Two problems arise when comparing a model's integration (the forecast) with an analysis of new observations, which are not found when comparing the forecast…
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Posted inStatistics

Pajamas Media: President Obama To Make Poverty Permanent

Today's post is at Pajamas Media: President Obama To Make Poverty Permanent. The Obama administration will create a new definition of poverty, one that changes as a function of how…
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  1. Johnno on World Ends In 25 years! Towns Become Slaughterhouses! Peter Thiel Disguises Self As Sheep!August 30, 2025

    Well as NLR said, and others have echoed, whenever disaster ultimately comes, it comes to the most advanced places, namely…

  2. Briggs on Class 63: My Correlation Is Causation Because My P Is WeeAugust 28, 2025

    Willis, The same one you used in setting up the problem. After "millions of throws" (where the manner of the…

  3. Williis Eschenbach on Class 63: My Correlation Is Causation Because My P Is WeeAugust 28, 2025

    As always, William, good stuff. Say that I have a pair of dice. I suspect that they are loaded to…

  4. McChuck on The Right & Wrong Way To Do (Electromagnetic) Science: Interview With Hans G. SchantzAugust 28, 2025

    Briggs & Schantz - With a name like that, you two should go into business making small engines. But seriously,…

  5. Wm Arthurs on Class 63: My Correlation Is Causation Because My P Is WeeAugust 28, 2025

    Throwaway comments made by people who are confused about this sort of thing, gave me a clue to one of…

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