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William M. Briggs

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Posted inStatistics

Company Stock And Bond Ratings: Skill and Influential Forecasts

If I tell you that it's not going to rain tomorrow, and it doesn't, then I have given you a successful forecast. If I repeat this success a few times,…
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Posted inStatistics

Obama Approval Rating By Religion

Mormons, according to the pollsters Gallup, are more dissatisfied with Mr Obama than are any other group of folk. And not only that: Mormons' dissatisfaction is dropping faster than is…
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Posted inStatistics

InterAcademy Council Rebukes IPCC: Pachauri To Resign?

You'll have heard that the InterAcademy Council had a look-see at the inner workings of the IPCC (more on that below). This council, previously unknown to civilization, is, as the…
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Posted inStatistics

James Cameron Ducks Global Warming Debate That Never Should Have Been Agreed To

Movie maker James Cameron has called people who don't believe as strongly as he does that the end is nigh "boneheads", which, as insults go, isn't particularly inventive. You would…
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Posted inStatistics

The Imperfectibility of Politics: Voting And Unhappiness

You're stuck in a motel because of a business meeting. It's 6 o' the clock post meridian, and you're hungry. The town in which you must linger is small and…
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Posted inStatistics

Chinese War Poker: Bluffs Or Solid Threats?

The United States Navy is going to steam into the Yellow Sea and blow up some Korean warships. But friendly, like, and for fun. Points will be scored, and trophies…
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Posted inStatistics

The McShane and Wyner Gordie Howe Treatment Of Mann

Many---as in lots and lots---of folks wrote in and asked me to review the McShane and Wyner paper. Thanks! Gordie Howe---Mr Hockey to you---didn't need his stick, his hockey stick,…
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Posted inStatistics

Newcomb’s Paradox And Probability

This article was suggested by reader JH who saw it discussed at Massimo Pigliucci's site. When he was at the Lawrence Livermore Laboratory, William Newcomb devised the following puzzle, which…
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  1. Brian (bulaoren) on All Models Only Say What They Are Told To Say, And AI Is A ModelMarch 27, 2026

    Logic, empiricism, wisdom... These solvents are without impact for people who have, so often, survived them. I believe this is…

  2. spetzer86 on All Models Only Say What They Are Told To Say, And AI Is A ModelMarch 27, 2026

    It's interesting that the commenters using AI prove the point that the use of a model yielding apparently random results…

  3. JH on All Models Only Say What They Are Told To Say, And AI Is A ModelMarch 27, 2026

    When brilliant minds join forces with advanced computers that execute tasks with precision and speed by following instructions, they achieve…

  4. fergus on All Models Only Say What They Are Told To Say, And AI Is A ModelMarch 27, 2026

    Post script. Looks like you are hiding well, for now, from the AI in the sky. I asked it if…

  5. fergus on All Models Only Say What They Are Told To Say, And AI Is A ModelMarch 27, 2026

    Did not read the article, just copy/pasted the number list to ChatGPT and it got right back with: Yes —…

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