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Posted inStatistics

2000 Scientists Demand Climate Action! Part II

Read Part I Cap & Trade & Tax & Spend is not dead. It was never even ailing. It's healthy and alert and standing in the corner, unnoticed. It has…
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Posted inStatistics

2000 Scientists Demand Climate Action! Part I

Let's suppose everything you have heard about global warming is true. It really will warm by a half-degree Centigrade by 2050, or even by three-quarters of a degree, or whatever.…
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Posted inStatistics

Democrats’ Appalling Budget Wishcast

Update No extra charge for today's initially misspelled headline. It is a logical fallacy to say that it OK for John to lie, cheat and steal because Mary lied, cheated…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

The Science News Statistical Article: Odds Are, It’s Wrong

Many (thank you everybody!) people sent me the "Odds Are, It's Wrong" article by Tom Siegfried and have asked me to comment. Below are the key points; I will assume…
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Posted inStatistics

Obamacare Predictions: Part I

Here are some things I think will happen if Obamacare is passed. When I say "you" or "your", I mean "people on average." Obviously, some people will benefit. This is…
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Posted inStatistics

Randomized Trials Are Not Needed

I promised this article a long time ago: I hope these well known calculations are enough to give the gist. Randomized controlled trials are supposed to be the gold standard…
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Posted inStatistics

Final Healthcare Showdown: Government vs. Liberty

There's Nancy Pelosi, Six Gun of State strapped to her side, the sun burning overhead. And there's you, armed only with Freedom, thirty paces off. It's a standoff! If you…
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Posted inStatistics

Climate Model Uncertainty: Part II

Read Part I The Analysis (cont.) Two problems arise when comparing a model's integration (the forecast) with an analysis of new observations, which are not found when comparing the forecast…
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  1. Rudolph Harrier on The Great Smoothing: Another Reason Not To Fear (or trust) AIMarch 10, 2026

    I've started thinking of this as the "juice loosener problem" (after the Simpsons bit where Dr. Nick hawks an orange…

  2. Cary D Cotterman on The Great Smoothing: Another Reason Not To Fear (or trust) AIMarch 10, 2026

    After spending years in school doing my own writing, then decades in my profession busting my ass to write somewhere…

  3. Uncle Mike on The Great Smoothing: Another Reason Not To Fear (or trust) AIMarch 10, 2026

    AI isn't the entity smoothing the data. The alleged decline in Arctic sea ice was a key assertion in Algore's…

  4. JH on A Synchronicity Or Coincidence? What Is Behind Curious Events?March 10, 2026

    The definition of cause can vary, and each incident may have its causes or contributing factors. I see coincidences as…

  5. JH on The Great Smoothing: Another Reason Not To Fear (or trust) AIMarch 10, 2026

    AI can be ‘gullible’ because it takes all the information fed into its optimization or backpropagation system. In many tasks,…

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