Statistics – Page 301 – William M. Briggs

The Truth of Things: When Probability & Statistics Cannot Be Used

I am always struggling with (my limited ability of) finding ways to describe the philosophy behind logical probability, especially to people who have a difficult time unlearning classical frequentist theory.…

Fun Statistics

Poem Code Challenge Solution

Back in September we surrendered to our geek roots and described poem codes. These are a handy method of enciphering short messages in the absence of electronic equipment. A poem…

Philosophy Statistics

Is Experimental Economics Irrational?

Everybody knows there's no such thing as money. So how come everybody acts like it's real? In particular, why do economists and other similar creatures find the lack of "rationality"…

Statistics

My Answers to Willis Eschenbach’s 14 + 2 Questions

Repost Mr Eschenbach had not had the chance to respond to this article before the two weeks wherein comments are automatically closed have elapsed. This re-post will allow him, and…

Statistics

What Can Volcanic Dust Models Tell Us About Cap & Trade?

Say Eyjafjallajokull three times fast. I wish I could say it once. I've heard it in so many different forms since it blew its stack that I can't be sure…

Statistics

The Pournelle vs. Nolan Chart: Political Throwdown

Before Jerry Pournelle began writing science fiction; before, that is, he teamed with Larry Niven to write the classic Lucifer's Hammer1, he was a political scientist. Pournelle was dissatisfied with…

Statistics

Russia Subtracted Most People; India Added Most.

It's Friday and time for something light. In 2006, Russia lost 732,000 people. Don't bother searching for them, because most of them were never born. Its neighbor Ukraine also misplaced…

Statistics

Pajamas Media: The Dismal Economics of Utopia

Today's post is at Pajamas Media: The Dismal Economics of Utopia. This is first is a short series. I thought it would be fun to show how the utopian ideas…

gareth on Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: ExamplesApril 29, 2026
Timestamp 21:35: A "correction" from 0.8 to 1.0 is a "correction factor" of 1.25, not 0.2 (akshully wot you mean…
Cato on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026
There’s no point to a world without me; of course I press Red.
Brian (bulaoren) on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026
I think that pessimism morphs into cynicism when we perceive personal gain in our bleak expectations.
Nate on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026
The best explanation I saw on twitter was this rephrasing: "There is a blender. Jumping into the blender will kill…
Nate on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026
I rephrased the question to remove "red" and "blue" priming words and asked the wife: "Space aliens create two buttons,…