Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
The Two-Envelope Problem Solution: Part II
Read Part I first. We are in the peek first game here. The distribution of N When X is odd, and all X are discrete, we know we should always…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
The Two-Envelope Problem Solution: Part I
Another probability "paradox", the two-envelope problem1, goes like this: Before you are two envelopes, A and B. One of them contains $X and the other $2X (which is equivalent to…
Posted inStatistics
St Petersburg Paradox; Games and Statistical Decisions; RIP David Blackwell
David Blackwell, who died two weeks ago, was one of the first mainstream statisticians to "go Bayesian." And for that and his unique skill in clearly explaining difficult ideas, we…
Posted inStatistics
How to Fool Yourself—And Others—With Statistics
See the news box to the left. I wrote this long ago and never used it. I do not love it. But since I am so busy, I haven't the…
Posted inStatistics
US Military Fatality Statistics: Have Suicides Increased?
All statistics were gathered from this DOD site. 2010 numbers were current as of 5 June this year; they were not part of the plots below. In 1983, the year…
Posted inFun Statistics
World Cup Predictions Verified
All that was missing was the water for the players to plunge into. Still, referee Howard Webb must be a fan of the aquatic and artistic sport of diving, and…
Posted inFun Statistics
The Predictive Skills of Octopii: Paul’s World Cup Prognostications
In Detroit, for that glorious game of soccer-on-ice-with-sticks, we---I still say "we"; you can never separate yourself from your birthplace---know what to do with octopuses, octopii as were: We toss…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Symmetry, Priors, Logical Probability, Infinities, and Needless Paradoxes
One reason why some reject the notions of logical probability and Bayesian statistics is because it is said that assignments of probability under symmetry generate paradoxes. However, as I will…