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William M. Briggs

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Posted inStatistics

2000 Scientists Demand Climate Action! Part I

Let's suppose everything you have heard about global warming is true. It really will warm by a half-degree Centigrade by 2050, or even by three-quarters of a degree, or whatever.…
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Posted inStatistics

Democrats’ Appalling Budget Wishcast

Update No extra charge for today's initially misspelled headline. It is a logical fallacy to say that it OK for John to lie, cheat and steal because Mary lied, cheated…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

The Science News Statistical Article: Odds Are, It’s Wrong

Many (thank you everybody!) people sent me the "Odds Are, It's Wrong" article by Tom Siegfried and have asked me to comment. Below are the key points; I will assume…
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Posted inStatistics

Obamacare Predictions: Part I

Here are some things I think will happen if Obamacare is passed. When I say "you" or "your", I mean "people on average." Obviously, some people will benefit. This is…
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Posted inStatistics

Randomized Trials Are Not Needed

I promised this article a long time ago: I hope these well known calculations are enough to give the gist. Randomized controlled trials are supposed to be the gold standard…
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Posted inStatistics

Final Healthcare Showdown: Government vs. Liberty

There's Nancy Pelosi, Six Gun of State strapped to her side, the sun burning overhead. And there's you, armed only with Freedom, thirty paces off. It's a standoff! If you…
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Posted inStatistics

Climate Model Uncertainty: Part II

Read Part I The Analysis (cont.) Two problems arise when comparing a model's integration (the forecast) with an analysis of new observations, which are not found when comparing the forecast…
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Posted inStatistics

Pajamas Media: President Obama To Make Poverty Permanent

Today's post is at Pajamas Media: President Obama To Make Poverty Permanent. The Obama administration will create a new definition of poverty, one that changes as a function of how…
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  1. Neil Jordan on Class 93: P-values Challenge! List The “Good Uses” of P-valueSeptember 10, 2026

    How wee is the P for a coincidence? Separately, I will forward the short paper by William Feller, Scientific Research,…

  2. Briggs on Class 93: P-values Challenge! List The “Good Uses” of P-valueSeptember 10, 2026

    Neil, Now, I promise this is true, but I also got an oil change this morning. P < ???

  3. Neil Jordan on Class 93: P-values Challenge! List The “Good Uses” of P-valueSeptember 10, 2026

    Reply via iPhone while waiting for car oil change - Use for wee P? Yes there is one. Without wee…

  4. Brian (bulaoren) on Is the West Dying Out? The Demographic Crisis Explained: Jon Harris PodcastSeptember 9, 2026

    Nature abhors a vacuum

  5. The True Nolan on Lindsay Clancy Strangled Her Kids Because Of “Climate Change”September 9, 2026

    In the distant past when dinosaurs roamed the earth and volcanoes belched hourly, we kids (being on summer vacation from…

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