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Scientists Use The Double-Dog Epidemiologist Fallacy To Claim Breathing Induces Antibiotic Resistance
Posted inStatistics

Scientists Use The Double-Dog Epidemiologist Fallacy To Claim Breathing Induces Antibiotic Resistance

Thanks to AS! I don't have your email, so I hope you see this. The epidemiologist fallacy occurs when a scientist announces, directly or implicitly, that X Causes Y, but…
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Mask Forever, Says Experts’ Model, It Saves Lives!
Posted inStatistics

Mask Forever, Says Experts’ Model, It Saves Lives!

Here's a question for you, brought to you by propagandists: "Could permanent masks in public become Vic policy?" And here's the headline: "Could wearing masks in public be the answer…
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How To Discover Any Trend You Want In Climate Time Series
Posted inStatistics

How To Discover Any Trend You Want In Climate Time Series

Day five of the week of classical posts on global warming, now "climate change", a subject which I had hoped had faded into obscurity, but, alas, has not. Your author…
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Posted inStatistics

How Smoothing Time Series Generates Massive Over-Certainty

Day four of the week of classical posts on global warming, now "climate change", a subject which I had hoped had faded into obscurity, but, alas, has not. Your author…
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Signal + Noise vs. Signal: Don’t Make This Classic Mistake
Posted inClass Statistics

Signal + Noise vs. Signal: Don’t Make This Classic Mistake

Day three of classical posts on global warming, now "climate change". Your author has many bona fides and much experience in this field: see this. Announcement. I am on vacation…
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The Ugly Unreality Of The Homogenization Of Time Series: Why Climate Scientists Are Too Sure Of Themselves
Posted inStatistics

The Ugly Unreality Of The Homogenization Of Time Series: Why Climate Scientists Are Too Sure Of Themselves

Day two of the week of classical posts on global warming, now "climate change". Your author has many bona fides and much experience in this field: see this. Announcement. I…
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Do not smooth times series, you hockey puck!
Posted inStatistics

Do not smooth times series, you hockey puck!

Welcome to the week of classical posts on global warming, now "climate change", a subject which I had hoped had faded into obscurity, but, alas, has not. Your author has…
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Posted inStatistics

Over-Certainty Is One Of The Main Causes Of Bad Science: Brain Volume & IQ Example

Announcement Next week I am on vacation as I prepare for the Cultural Event of the year. There will be no new posts: there may be classic reposts. Don't miss…
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  1. Cary D Cotterman on Confirmation Bias In The Minneapolis ShootingJanuary 13, 2026

    No news source is perfect. Fox openly owns their conservative point of view. NPR lies about being unbiased. Even with…

  2. Tars Tarkas on Confirmation Bias In The Minneapolis ShootingJanuary 13, 2026

    "(I have in the queue a story on confirmation bias of academic Experts that confirms my bias that academic Experts…

  3. Stan on Confirmation Bias In The Minneapolis ShootingJanuary 13, 2026

    Around 2013, I obtained all death certificate data from the state of California for the years 2000-2012. I posted on…

  4. Briggs on Sports Betting Is An Excellent Way To Lose MoneyJanuary 13, 2026

    Anon. I believe you'll find they are the same. I did a little shorthand by first taking the absolute value…

  5. Anonymous on Sports Betting Is An Excellent Way To Lose MoneyJanuary 13, 2026

    Errata: your moneyline formula should have (x - 100) in the denominator for -x.

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