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How Do Scientists & Soothsayers Know When They’re Right? Report on Fourth Broken Science Initiative Event
Posted inStatistics

How Do Scientists & Soothsayers Know When They’re Right? Report on Fourth Broken Science Initiative Event

We had the fourth Broken Science Initiative event this past Saturday at the Castro Ranch in Aromas, California. Which is apparently where CrossFit got its start. Standing room only. Terrific…
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It Will Soon Be Impossible For You Not To Be Sick, Even If You’re Healthy
Posted inCulture Statistics

It Will Soon Be Impossible For You Not To Be Sick, Even If You’re Healthy

It's too late for you, doomed reader. You know I love you, but I may have killed you. This makes me sad. Unless you are one of my despised enemies.…
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Did The Covid Vax, Or Any Vax, Cause ADHD or Autism? Steve Kirsch’s Survey Data Analyzed
Posted inStatistics

Did The Covid Vax, Or Any Vax, Cause ADHD or Autism? Steve Kirsch’s Survey Data Analyzed

This site is mirrored at Substack for those who prefer that format. Introduction Steve Kirsch ran a survey asking parents to say about their kids how many vaccinations of all…
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Experts: The Coronadoom Vax Only Worked If You Got It At Lunch
Posted inStatistics

Experts: The Coronadoom Vax Only Worked If You Got It At Lunch

Nature headline: "Timing matters for COVID vaccine effectiveness: Younger and older people gained greater protection if they had their jabs in the middle of the day." Good joke: "Went from…
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Science Is Self-Perpetuating, Not Self-Correcting: Sea Ice Case Study
Posted inStatistics

Science Is Self-Perpetuating, Not Self-Correcting: Sea Ice Case Study

Headline from 2014: "Expert predicts ice-free Arctic by 2020 as UN releases climate report". Here from NASA is a picture by year of the estimated minimum sea-ice extent, which occurs…
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If You Had To Choose “Ignore Or Believe All Academics On Climate Change”, Which Is Smarter?
Posted inStatistics

If You Had To Choose “Ignore Or Believe All Academics On Climate Change”, Which Is Smarter?

Update See the Twitter thread (and account) for many more examples. NOBODY has been able to find a word yet that Experts haven't tied to "climate change." Got an email…
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The Less You Know About Climate, The More You Cry About Climate
Posted inStatistics

The Less You Know About Climate, The More You Cry About Climate

Some things, the saying goes, are too good to check. Take the peer-reviewed paper "Environmental knowledge is inversely associated with climate change anxiety" by Hannes Zacher and Cort W. Rudolph…
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There Is No Problem Of Old Evidence In Bayesian Probability
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

There Is No Problem Of Old Evidence In Bayesian Probability

Rationalists, like those at Less Wrong (think Eliezer Yudkowsky and Scott Alexander), are prone to fetishsize Bayes theorem, seeing it as the key to all thought. It isn't. Bayes is…
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  1. hudbwu on Academic Argues For Permissibility of Cannibalism, You RacistDecember 12, 2025

    I'll just point out that there is nothing in the Catholic doctrine that prohibits cannibalism. I was quite surprised when…

  2. Johnno on Academic Argues For Permissibility of Cannibalism, You RacistDecember 11, 2025

    The cemeteries??? The hospitals themselves will weigh you and cut you up and auction you off just like the first…

  3. John Pate on Class 74: Contra Effect SizesDecember 11, 2025

    The big sticking point for me is that everyone assumes they are sampling from the Normal Distribution for no reason…

  4. Rob JM on On That “Bombshell German Study” That “Exposes the PCR Test Fraud That Locked Down the World”December 11, 2025

    What the holy tortured and misinterpreted data Batman! They were comparing apples to blended banana splits and then desperately tried…

  5. John Pate on Academic Argues For Permissibility of Cannibalism, You RacistDecember 10, 2025

    When the Indo-Pak agricultural systems collapse, which judging by their skirmishes over water will be in the near future, and/or…

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