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How To Generate Scientific Over-Certainty
Posted inStatistics

How To Generate Scientific Over-Certainty

It's easy to sound more certain than the evidence warrants, especially when using classical parameter-based statistical methods. I'll show you how. I'll give you the procedure first, then work through…
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Curious Notions Of Cause In Science & Statistics
Posted inStatistics

Curious Notions Of Cause In Science & Statistics

You will forgive me if this post is more technical than usual. I try to leave out math, knowing how confusing it can be. But here it is necessary. The…
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Massive Over-Certainties In Medicine: Bad Statistics, Bad Experiments
Posted inStatistics

Massive Over-Certainties In Medicine: Bad Statistics, Bad Experiments

Ready to Follow The Science? Let's listen to the lamentations of its lecturers and lovers. The case against science is straightforward: much of the scientific literature, perhaps half, may simply…
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How Academic Psychology Affects Brains Of Academic Psychologists Studying How Climate Change Affects Brains
Posted inStatistics

How Academic Psychology Affects Brains Of Academic Psychologists Studying How Climate Change Affects Brains

Yesterday I made the claim that academic psychology contained vastly more "banality, ephemera, and outright enforced mandatory quackery than real psychology." This was proved by a paper written by a…
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Probabilities For Unique Events, Like Nuclear War, Exists
Posted inStatistics

Probabilities For Unique Events, Like Nuclear War, Exists

This will appear obscure to you. It isn't. The errors here are fundamental, and cascade all throughout science. They account for, in part, why science has become so bad. The…
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Pfizer Adverse Events List Released: Plus An Update Of VAERS Analysis: J&J Deaths, Pfizer Injuries Younger
Posted inStatistics

Pfizer Adverse Events List Released: Plus An Update Of VAERS Analysis: J&J Deaths, Pfizer Injuries Younger

The judge-ordered release of the Pfizer docs happened this week (full link). Just when I thought we'd kicked the coronadoom habit. I don't want it to get lost: what we're…
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The Last (Regular) Coronadoom Update!
Posted inStatistics

The Last (Regular) Coronadoom Update!

This will be the last regular coronadoom update. I've already these last three weeks given up on numbering them. Almost two hundred, all tolled---get it? This will certainly not be…
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Bertrand’s Paradox — Solved!
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Bertrand’s Paradox — Solved!

Anon sent a question about Bertrand's Paradox. The paradox is supposed to show something has gone wrong with our thinking in probability. And it has, but not in the way…
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  1. hudbwu on Over-Certainty Of Polygenic ScoresJune 11, 2025

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