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William M. Briggs

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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

The Probability Of Nonsense In Science: Complexity & Verification

This is a work in progress, and today is a busy day. This is just for fun and for you to play with. The more complex the field of study,…
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Posted inFun Statistics

Sleeping Beauty Probability Problem

Update This has been moved up from its original 29 Feb 2012 date on 23 March 2012 to allow additional comments. Update This has been moved up from its original…
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Posted inPhilosophy

The Implications Of Moral Insignificance

In her piece "In Praise of Insignificance" in Scientific American, Jennifer Ouellette says, If one embraces an atheist worldview, it necessarily requires embracing, even celebrating, one's insignificance. It's a tall…
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Posted inCulture

Another Academic Says Climate Skeptics Criminals Against Humanity And Other Name Calling

In a talk at some "sustainability" something-or-other seminar---one this is sure: we're not going to soon run out of climate conclaves---academic Donald Brown told his audience (25 min. mark) that…
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Posted inPhilosophy

All Forecasts, Predictions, & Prophecies Are Contingent

Yesterday I made the point that Jim Hansen's latest threat of doom was a conditional one. I also said that there was nothing wrong with this. And there isn't. Nothing…
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Posted inStatistics

Boy Sues Government To Stop Global Warming. James Hansen Comes Out Of Hiding

I had thought the furor was over, that those who held ultramontane views about climatologists like James "Lock me up!" Hansen (see below the fold) had given up and gone…
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Posted inCulture Statistics

Many Lie About Their Support Of Gay Marriage: Study

Thanks to New York Times's (yes) Russ Douthat who alerted us to the paper "Findings from a Decade of Polling on Ballot Measures Regarding the Legal Status of Same­ Sex…
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Posted inCulture Philosophy

What The North Carolina Gay Marriage Vote Means To You If You Were Against It

North Carolina voted 61 to 39 to amend its constitution to read that marriage is solely a union between a man and a woman. This was, as far as democratic…
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  1. Uncle Mike on Why Study Probability?November 14, 2025

    The answer is a question: what did you expect the counts to be? On what premises did you base your…

  2. JH on Why Study Probability?November 14, 2025

     Then some decision rule that says “This much departure from uniformity means loading.” Which rule may be different for you…

  3. Williis Eschenbach on Why Study Probability?November 13, 2025

    Thanks, Matt, but you haven't answered my question, either then or now. The last time I asked, I got this…

  4. Uncle Mike on Why Study Probability?November 13, 2025

    Or, Willis, you could take the course, study the classes, do the homework. Then, quite possibly, or even probably, you…

  5. Briggs on Why Study Probability?November 13, 2025

    Willis, I have answered the question each and every time. Go back and look at when you asked, and you'll…

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