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William M. Briggs

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That “1-in-27 Million Chance That Earth’s Record Hot Streak Is Natural” Is Preposterous
Posted inStatistics

That “1-in-27 Million Chance That Earth’s Record Hot Streak Is Natural” Is Preposterous

This post is one that has been restored after the hacking. All original comments were lost. We met a lot of bad statistics over the years, but this one wins…
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NEW PAPER: Why Models Run Hot: Results From An Irreducibly Simple Climate Model
Posted inStatistics

NEW PAPER: Why Models Run Hot: Results From An Irreducibly Simple Climate Model

This post is one that has been restored after the hacking. All original comments were lost. Here's our press release. See also the Daily Mail. WHAT WENT WRONG? A major…
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Posted inStatistics

Real Climate Temperature “Trend” Article Gets It Wrong (Like So Many Do)

This post is one that has been restored after the hacking. All original comments were lost. Everything that can go wrong with a time series analysis has gone wrong with…
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Posted inStatistics

On The Uselessness Of Lie Detector (And Medical) Screenings, And The Ames Spy Case

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xr8BUxVRwFY This post is one that has been restored after the hacking. All original comments were lost. Have you seen the television series The Assets? Dramatization of the Sandy Grimes-Jeanne…
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Posted inStatistics

How’d We Do On Our 2014 Predictions?

This post is one that has been restored after the hacking. All original comments were lost. Time to tally. As has become our tradition, each New Year's Eve we see…
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Posted inPhilosophy

Pascal’s Pensées, A Tour: II

Since our walk through Summa Contra Gentiles is going so well, why not let's do the same with Pascal's sketchbook on what we can now call Thinking Thursdays. We'll use…
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Posted inBook review Statistics

The Moral Case For Fossil Fuels Reviewed

People first Just in time for the Federally-Recognized-Holiday-Of-25-December-That-Shall-Go-Unnamed we have a suitable gift for science deniers everywhere. Alex Epstein's The Moral Case For Fossil Fuels Science deniers? Yes, sir. Those…
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Posted inFun

This Is Why Jesus Will Separate The Sheep From The Goats

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OvRdbTQu9HY And all nations shall be gathered together before him, and he shall separate them one from another, as the shepherd separateth the sheep from the goats: And he shall…
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  1. Brian (bulaoren) on What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?April 20, 2026

    I'm waiting for members of the California Coastal Commission to start disappearing.

  2. Lucy Tucker on What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?April 20, 2026

    You’re the best?????

  3. Johnno on Trump’s Last Stand: Mea Culpa, Redux — Guest Post by Ianto WattApril 19, 2026

    As I also believe via prophecy that Russia will rise, I wouldn't put much stock in Vladimir. His Special Military…

  4. Johnno on Contest Winner Announced!April 19, 2026

    Send the Gazan to Gaza the next time Netanyahu needs a convenient bombing operation to delay reopening his criminal trial.

  5. Johnno on How A Miracle Turns MundaneApril 19, 2026

    Careful there Briggs, we dogmatically believe that the Scriptures are inerrant... as the exception to every other potential work of…

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