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William M. Briggs

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Posted inStatistics

Natural Variations In Weather DO NOT Explain The ‘Pause’: Update, With Letter to Nature

You create a model which predicts the sun will rise in the west. The sun fails to cooperate and rises in the east. Do you: Admit failure and return your…
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Posted inCulture

Government Funding Is A Conflict Of Interest: Cowardly Calls For Climate Scientist’s Firing. Update

The Beast What entity pours by far the most money into scientific research? I'll give you a hint. It's the same entity that has been growing without bound, mercilessly muscling…
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Posted inFun Statistics

Predictions For 2015—Re-Register Yours Today!

This post is one that has been restored after the hacking. All original comments were lost. Would you mind pretty please making the predictions again? Happy New Year! Hangover? Since…
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Climate Paper Causes Chaos, Angst, Anger, Apoplexy! (Hacking)
Posted inStatistics

Climate Paper Causes Chaos, Angst, Anger, Apoplexy! (Hacking)

Last Wednesday, the Daily Mail told the world of the peer-reviwed paper Lord Monckton, Willie Soon, David Legates and I wrote entitled "Why models run hot: results from an irreducibly…
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That “1-in-27 Million Chance That Earth’s Record Hot Streak Is Natural” Is Preposterous
Posted inStatistics

That “1-in-27 Million Chance That Earth’s Record Hot Streak Is Natural” Is Preposterous

This post is one that has been restored after the hacking. All original comments were lost. We met a lot of bad statistics over the years, but this one wins…
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NEW PAPER: Why Models Run Hot: Results From An Irreducibly Simple Climate Model
Posted inStatistics

NEW PAPER: Why Models Run Hot: Results From An Irreducibly Simple Climate Model

This post is one that has been restored after the hacking. All original comments were lost. Here's our press release. See also the Daily Mail. WHAT WENT WRONG? A major…
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Posted inStatistics

Real Climate Temperature “Trend” Article Gets It Wrong (Like So Many Do)

This post is one that has been restored after the hacking. All original comments were lost. Everything that can go wrong with a time series analysis has gone wrong with…
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Posted inStatistics

On The Uselessness Of Lie Detector (And Medical) Screenings, And The Ames Spy Case

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xr8BUxVRwFY This post is one that has been restored after the hacking. All original comments were lost. Have you seen the television series The Assets? Dramatization of the Sandy Grimes-Jeanne…
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  1. JRob on Fertility Fears Overblown: Tiny Shift in Childless Rate Saves The SpeciesAugust 27, 2026

    re: Shawn Marshall Just yesterday my email folder contained a conservative political call to oppose the upcoming abortion amendment to…

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    That x-axis could just as well be labelled "distance from equator" or "length of winter nights".

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