Posted inStatistics
“Probably Fine” Isn’t A Number
Today's headline is a true proposition. "Probably fine" isn't a number, yet it is a perfectly reasonable way to communicate risk. Indeed most risk is, and should be, given in…
Posted inStatistics
Was The UEFA Champions League Draw Rigged?—Bayesian Analysis by Henk Tijms
Henk Tijms, emeritus professor at the Vrije University in Amsterdam, is author of Understanding Probability (excerpt; Amazon at this writing has it for only $31.29, a steal for textbooks). Football…
Posted inCulture Philosophy
Aesthetics: Peter Kreeft’s Summa Philosophica Part X
Previous installments: I, II, III, IV, V, VI, VII, VIII, IX. Remember our review of Peter Kreeft's Summa Philosophica? We did nine (of ten plus one) chapters, then I laid…
Posted inCulture Philosophy
Small Things
Have a bit of a bug, so only a few small things today. Red State A reliable, though not infallible, mark of a bad argument is the level of self-congratulation…
Posted inStatistics
Regression To The Mean (And Performance Curses) Simply Explained
I've just read about The Second Term Curse which supposedly besets (of course) second-term presidents. There is also the infamous Sports Illustrated Curse, which is said to befall athletes soon…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Celeste Greig Fired Over Rape Comments
A hoard of angry abortion supporters---one wonders if there are other kinds---succeeded in removing Celeste Greig from her post as president of the state's Republican Assembly. Greig's thought crime? In…
Posted inCulture Philosophy
On Arguing
We often have a series of exchanges with friends or others, seeking to convince them of some proposition which we believe is true, and which may even be true. But…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Subjective Versus Objective Bayes (Versus Frequentism): Part Final: Parameters!
(All the stuff in this series is, in a fuller form, in my new upcoming book, which is tentatively called Logical Probability and Statistics---but I've only changed the title 342…
