Posted inStatistics
Does Barack Obama Have A Mandate? A Look At The Numbers
How important was Barack Obama's victory? By what measure can he be said to have secured a "mandate"? How does his election compares to others? And how do voters in…
Posted inBook review Philosophy
Political Philosophy: Peter Kreeft’s Summa Philosophica Part IX
Remember, we're doing summaries of summaries here; only bare sketches are possible. Buy his book for more detail. Read Part VIII. Question IX is Political Philosophy. Stand back! Article 1:…
Posted inStatistics
What’s The Official Name For Governance By Thuggery?
To summarize what we know, but only in brief and leaving out many smaller scandals: The White House lied about the cause of Benghazi. They knowingly, willingly, and falsely claimed…
Posted inCulture Fun Statistics
How’d Our 2012 Predictions Fare?
We didn't have a such a bad year making picks---here's the list. Make predictions for 2013 here. Yours truly picked Mitt Romney as president. A wishcast not a forecast! A…
Posted inCulture Fun Statistics
Help Wanted With Ideas For Survey About Who Will Win Presidency
It's the start of the long, last week of summer (and since I've spent the bulk of it in San Francisco, there was no summer at all), where most of…
Posted inStatistics
Obama On Way Out? Romeny Hasn’t A Chance? Last Day of Presidential Voting Study
Today is the last day to participate in the voting study. If you have not already done so, please click below. And please send this to people you know, especially…
Posted inStatistics
Intrade’s Record In Picking Presidents: Is There Market Manipulation?
An "influential forecast" is one in which knowledge of the prediction changes the uncertainty in the thing being predicted. Consider a (respected) political opinion poll which announces Candidate B has…
Posted inStatistics
Nate Silver’s Obama Prediction: What Does It Mean?
It was Sophocles who first noted the truism, "No one loves the messenger who brings bad news." But the converse is also true. As it is written (in Romans 10:15),…
