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Gambler’s Fallacy Not As Crazy As Mathematician’s Fallacy
Posted inStatistics

Gambler’s Fallacy Not As Crazy As Mathematician’s Fallacy

A new walks-into-a-bar joke begins (thanks to reader Kip Hansen for the tip): A mathematician, a philosopher and a gambler walk into a bar. As the barman pulls each of…
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Coronavirus Update XXVII: The Central Fallacy of the Panic: Updates
Posted inStatistics

Coronavirus Update XXVII: The Central Fallacy of the Panic: Updates

See the new analysis at the bottom, prompted by a question from Joe Bastardi. Update I have two words for the people who did this. You know what they are.…
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Summary Against Modern Thought: The Consent Fallacy Applied To Fornication And Sodomy
Posted inPhilosophy SAMT

Summary Against Modern Thought: The Consent Fallacy Applied To Fornication And Sodomy

Previous post. Our good saint did not use the name Consent Fallacy, but we see it in the first argument. No real comment is necessary here: the saint's words are…
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The Only Thing That Has Fat Tails Are Rappers: More On The PP Fallacy
Posted inStatistics

The Only Thing That Has Fat Tails Are Rappers: More On The PP Fallacy

Evidence for an event cannot be the horrific consequences of that event. Suppose we're interested in the probability of a Y = "Horrific plague". Since nothing has a probability, we…
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Epidemiologist Fallacy Strikes Again: Miscarriages And Air Pollution Edition
Posted inStatistics

Epidemiologist Fallacy Strikes Again: Miscarriages And Air Pollution Edition

I love air pollution. Smells like progress. Good for you. Nothing healthier. Except smoking. There, now that that's out of the way, let's get to the paper "Air pollution-induced missed…
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The Epidemiologist (P-value + Ecological) Fallacy Exposed (Video)
Posted inStatistics

The Epidemiologist (P-value + Ecological) Fallacy Exposed (Video)

Video Link https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GV-IRdTWG2c The Epidemiologist Fallacy marries the Ecological Fallacy with the P-value Fallacy. The Ecological Fallacy is when it is said X causes Y, but X is not measured,…
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The Epidemiologist Fallacy Strikes Again — Pesticides & Autism
Posted inStatistics

The Epidemiologist Fallacy Strikes Again — Pesticides & Autism

Long-time readers will recall the epidemiologist fallacy is a shotgun marriage of the ecological fallacy and wee p-values. Make that and/or confidence intervals. For confidence intervals are equivalent to p-values…
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Prime Example Of Consent Fallacy: Legalizing Prostitution
Posted inCulture Philosophy

Prime Example Of Consent Fallacy: Legalizing Prostitution

NYT: Could Prostitution Be Next to Be Decriminalized? Marijuana has gone mainstream, casino gambling is everywhere and sports wagering is spreading. Could prostitution be next? Lawmakers across the country are…
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  1. spetzer86 on Little Nate’s Plan To Save The WorldNovember 4, 2025

    NLR - there's always Google on African massacres. Stuff happens all over, even if you live on a continent that…

  2. NLR on Little Nate’s Plan To Save The WorldNovember 4, 2025

    For some time now, equality has been used as a bludgeon, but the people implementing it are not acting in…

  3. Michael Dowd on Little Nate’s Plan To Save The WorldNovember 4, 2025

    It's all how you use "facts" and "logic". With the aid of God or without. One leads to a balanced…

  4. Tim on Little Nate’s Plan To Save The WorldNovember 4, 2025

    "Liberal Elites Care about Facts and Logic.: Umm...since when, exactly? Like, "Nazis were as humane and gentle with the Jews…

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    Briggs, you fool! There are always the judges! There is no shortage of left under handed women on the bench…

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