A new walks-into-a-bar joke begins (thanks to reader Kip Hansen for the tip): A mathematician, a philosopher and a gambler walk into a bar. As the barman pulls each of…

See the new analysis at the bottom, prompted by a question from Joe Bastardi. Update I have two words for the people who did this. You know what they are.…

Evidence for an event cannot be the horrific consequences of that event. Suppose we're interested in the probability of a Y = "Horrific plague". Since nothing has a probability, we…

I love air pollution. Smells like progress. Good for you. Nothing healthier. Except smoking. There, now that that's out of the way, let's get to the paper "Air pollution-induced missed…

Video Link https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GV-IRdTWG2c The Epidemiologist Fallacy marries the Ecological Fallacy with the P-value Fallacy. The Ecological Fallacy is when it is said X causes Y, but X is not measured,…

Long-time readers will recall the epidemiologist fallacy is a shotgun marriage of the ecological fallacy and wee p-values. Make that and/or confidence intervals. For confidence intervals are equivalent to p-values…