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On The Confirmation Bias Of  Experts & Doctors
Posted inCulture

On The Confirmation Bias Of Experts & Doctors

There is a thing in bad science, and indeed in all life, called confirmation bias. I've said many times that all scientists know and believe in the concept, just as…
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The Mann Act: Banning All Fossil Fuels Immediately To Save The Planet
Posted inStatistics

The Mann Act: Banning All Fossil Fuels Immediately To Save The Planet

I don't want us to make too much of the individual behind the brief confession we're about to dissect, because if it wasn't him leading Team Irrationality, it would be…
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Making Climate Skepticism Illegal: The Regime’s Crackdown On Disinformation
Posted inStatistics

Making Climate Skepticism Illegal: The Regime’s Crackdown On Disinformation

Update https://twitter.com/TaylorLorenz/status/1526933945949990912 Original story. Before we get into this, it is interesting to note that if I had kept my original headline, "Attempting to make global warming skepticism illegal", it…
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Why The Continuing Appeal Of The Appeal To Non-Authority Fallacy?
Posted inCulture Philosophy

Why The Continuing Appeal Of The Appeal To Non-Authority Fallacy?

Listen to the podcast at YouTube, Bitchute, or Gab. Ladies and gentlemen, allow me to introduce to you proof that "climate change" has completed its transformation from Science into yet…
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Modulation of Ice Ages – Without CO2 — Guest Post by Ralph Ellis
Posted inStatistics

Modulation of Ice Ages – Without CO2 — Guest Post by Ralph Ellis

Ellis sent me his paper "Modulation of Ice-ages via Precession and Dust-Albedo Feedbacks" in Geoscience Frontiers, and I found it rather intriguing. To greatly simplify: CO2 is good for you,…
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Signal + Noise vs. Signal: Don’t Make This Classic Mistake
Posted inClass Statistics

Signal + Noise vs. Signal: Don’t Make This Classic Mistake

Day three of classical posts on global warming, now "climate change". Your author has many bona fides and much experience in this field: see this. Announcement. I am on vacation…
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UPDATE: Everything We Warned About Official Disinformation Requiring Official Truths Was True
Posted inCulture Podcast

UPDATE: Everything We Warned About Official Disinformation Requiring Official Truths Was True

Experimenting with the podcast format. My voice is still not back to normal. If I did it right, the podcast is also at Spotify. If anybody uses it, please let…
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How To Generate Massive Scientific Over-Certainty With These Four Simple Tricks
Posted inStatistics

How To Generate Massive Scientific Over-Certainty With These Four Simple Tricks

Update This must be more difficult than I thought, judging by lack of questions or comments. If you do not understand, ask. Here is a picture of what they are…
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  1. NLR on Class 64: No Confidence (Interval) In ParametersSeptember 5, 2025

    An idea for a what are the odds post: Jeanne Calment's longevity challenged, partially by statistical modelling.

  2. FRIDAY EARLY-MORNING EDITION - BIG PULPIT on What Are The Chances 6 AfD Candidates Die Before An Election?September 5, 2025

    […] Political Analysis, Punditry, and News:What Are The Chances 6 AfD Candidates Die Before An Election? – William M. Briggs,…

  3. Briggs on What Are The Chances 6 AfD Candidates Die Before An Election?September 3, 2025

    Spetzer86, Sure. It won't change much. Better yet, we can investigate the cause of each death, which tells us ALL…

  4. spetzer86 on What Are The Chances 6 AfD Candidates Die Before An Election?September 3, 2025

    Wouldn't the span of time the deaths happened in figure into the final probability? The value used is for a…

  5. John Pate on What Are The Chances 6 AfD Candidates Die Before An Election?September 3, 2025

    Number seven just took the big sleep.

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