Kevin "Travesty" Trenberth had a peer-reviewed article in Science entitled, "Has there been a hiatus? Internal climate variability masks climate-warming trends." First, the word "hiatus" is wrong. Using it assumes…

Today's post is at The Stream: "Attack Of The Black Swans From Outer Space: Nassim Nicholas Taleb and his co-authors fail to show their precautionary principle provides any guidance in…

Read Part I, Part II Part III This brings us to the second reason for measuring model goodness. Or rather an incorrect implementation of it. A lot of folks announce…

Today's post is at The Stream: What's True and What's False in Obama's Latest Global Warming Claims. There is so much hyperbolic language surrounding the topic of global warming that…

Part I of III All probability (which is to say, statistical) models have a predictive sense; indeed, they are only really useful in that sense. We don't need models to…

Read Part I Part II What we're after is a score that calculates how close a prediction is to its eventual observation when the prediction is a probability. Now there…