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William M. Briggs

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Posted inCulture Statistics

British Judge Rules Against Bayes’s Theorem

A British judge has thrown a use of Bayes's rule out of his court. Not only that, his honor (Lordship?) ruled "against using similar statistical analysis in the courts in…
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Posted inStatistics

The Implications Of Yesterday’s Global Warming Post

There was nothing in the world wrong with my scientific paper "Global Warming Increases Disastrous Music: A Scientific Paper." Nothing, that is, that isn't wrong with any paper which seeks,…
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Posted inStatistics

Global Warming Increases Disastrous Music: A Scientific Paper

A scientific paper in a grand tradition (notice the scientific formatting and use of p-values): the custom is to read only the Abstract; only the brave and bored should venture…
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Posted inCulture Statistics

The Horrible Dangers Of Third-Hand Smoke

All countries have been known to periodically lose their minds. France in 1789 banned religion by the point of a blade, Russia in 1917 banned freedom by the barrel of…
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Posted inCulture Statistics

Title IX And Campus Equality

Under Title IX, a woman is entitled to equal access to everything on a college campus. That includes being safe. The most devastating thing is a young girl who reports…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Replication In Science

Have doubts about the latest finding from researchers? Confused that last week red wine "increased the risk of heart disease" but this week red wine "decreased the risk of heart…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

A New (Old) View Of Statistics. Ithaca Teaching Journal, Day 11

It is often difficult to keep in mind all the links in a chain of argument when that chain is long.1 This is especially so when one expects that chain…
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Posted inStatistics

Regression Examples. Normal Distributions Often Stink. Ithaca Teaching Journal, Day 10

Today, just one example, and the simplest kind, to show you that using regular regression, with its assumptions of "normality", can quickly lead to absurdities---absurdities which will pass unnoticed using…
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  1. Briggs on Class 72: Most Claims Of “Controlled For” Are Wrong: The Wrong WayNovember 21, 2025

    Uncle Mike, By a strange coincidence, you hit upon the very example I used in the class after Thanksgiving. Pr("loaded"…

  2. Uncle Mike on Class 72: Most Claims Of “Controlled For” Are Wrong: The Wrong WayNovember 21, 2025

    What if you rolled a six-sided die 60 times and scored a 10 for each side (1-10, 2-10, 3-10, 4-10,…

  3. Ronald Conneely on Black Women Can’t Do Physics As Well As White Men, Says ResearcherNovember 20, 2025

    Great analysis as usual but be careful, you are bordering on that dreded (R----t) area. Would hate to lose your…

  4. Williis Eschenbach on Class 72: Most Claims Of “Controlled For” Are Wrong: The Wrong WayNovember 20, 2025

    Thanks, Matt, that's what I figured, just wanted to verify it. w.

  5. Briggs on Class 72: Most Claims Of “Controlled For” Are Wrong: The Wrong WayNovember 20, 2025

    Willis, Sure, you can change the model to remove the probability leakage. Careful modelers would. The vast majority would not,…

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