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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Lesson Somethingorother: Against the P-value

I've lost count of the lesson numbers. The definition of a p-value, here phrased in the incorrectly named "test of difference in means", is: Given the truth of a probability…
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Posted inStatistics

Lesson Zero: Lecturing, Churchill, and End of the World

Teaching as Performance The class is two weeks of solid statistics. Eight hours a day weeks; save the weekends. I don't know about other instructors, but my technique is to…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Lesson Five or Six: Abnormality

Say! What happened to lessons three through four or five? Who knows. This morning, I'm dreadfully rushed, so just a sketch. I do not expect anybody to be convinced this…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Confidence Intervals, Logic, Induction

Induction "Because all the many flames observed before have been hot is a good reason to believe this flame will be hot" is an example of an inductive argument, and…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

The Science News Statistical Article: Odds Are, It’s Wrong

Many (thank you everybody!) people sent me the "Odds Are, It's Wrong" article by Tom Siegfried and have asked me to comment. Below are the key points; I will assume…
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Posted inStatistics

The Ease of Cheating With Statistics

Thanks to readers Ari Schwartz and Tom Pollard for suggesting this article. Take any two sets of numbers, where the only restriction is that a reasonable chunk inside each set…
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Posted inStatistics

Predictive Statistics: GPA Case Study, Part II

Read Part I : Download the Quirk’s article. To understand why ordinary regression assumptions are bad, we need to look at some (new data) scenarios. Suppose that Bob had a…
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Posted inStatistics

Predictive Statistics: GPA Case Study, Part I

Read Part II : Download the Quirk’s article. Predictive statistics differs from classical (frequentist and Bayesian) practices because it focuses on observables and not metaphysical entities. Observables are the data…
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